Daily Archives: February 13, 2018

Time posted: 7:28 pm

Rain Ready To Return

Good Tuesday evening, everyone. Showers are developing to our southwest and getting set to roll back across the bluegrass state. This touches off a very active pattern, with heavy rain and a few winter threats trying to show up.

Showers are going up across Tennessee and working into parts of western and southern Kentucky. Track the LATE evening action toward us…

Showers continue into Thursday as temps make a run at 60 in several areas. A strong southwesterly wind will then boost our temps deep into the 60s, with some 70s possible in the south on Thursday…

That’s ahead of heavy rain that moves in for Thursday night and early Friday. This may cause some high water issues during this time. A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible across the state from Wednesday through Friday.

As a cold front slows down on top of us, another heavy rain maker moves in for Saturday into early Sunday…

That system is cold enough for a swath of snow to try to show up across northern parts of the state…

I’m not totally sold on the winter weather aspect of that system, but am more concerned with the additional heavy rain it may bring our region.

Flooding is possible through the weekend.

After that, the setup for next week continues to look nasty. Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms develop and roll across the state, dumping more heavy rains. Flooding and river flooding may become a major issue over the next few weeks.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:30 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang.  I wanted to drop by for a super duper quick update to the active pattern taking shape for the next few weeks.

The setup for the nest several days hasn’t changed, but nuisances in the details are showing up. We know rain and a possible clap of thunder moves in tonight and Wednesday. After that, we find a split in the models.

The GFS shows heavy rain and some thunder Thursday into early Friday, before a quick switch to snow as cold air crashes in later Friday…

That faster push of cold then keeps the next low developing to our south, largely missing Kentucky.

The Canadian isn’t as bullish with the Friday cold, and keeps a bigger system on top of us for the weekend. This run has taken a colder look with this system, bringing heavy rain and some snow…

Interesting.

Behind that comes additional systems targeting our region next week…

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a lot of precipitation on top of us over the next few weeks…

I’ll have another update this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:36 am

A Mild and Very Wet Pattern

Good Tuesday, everyone. Much milder air is pushing into the region today and we look to average milder than normal for the rest of February. Unfortunately, the same setup is poised to bring a lot more rain to our region during the same time. My flooding concerns continue to increase.

As usual, let’s begin with today and roll forward. A few showers will be noted in the southeast early on, but skies will become partly sunny in most areas. Highs will reach the 50s, with a 60 possible in the southwest.

Showers quickly start to develop tonight and into Wednesday as a disturbance moves through from the southwest. The NAM is showing a swath of heavy rain setting up along the Interstate 64 corridor…

Temps will shoot toward 60 by Wednesday, with highs deep into the 60s by Thursday. That’s ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest, bringing widespread rain and some thunderstorms.

This looks like a general 1″-3″ rain for much of Kentucky through Friday. Cold air will try to catch the back edge of the rain, switching it over to a period of wet snow later Friday. The GFS is really the only model now showing this.

The same GFS gives us a break for the weekend, but the Canadian Model shows another storm system moving in on Saturday, brining more heavy rain…

The Canadian rainfall through Saturday is worrisome…

A few days ago, I made this map to illustrate where the greatest high water threat may be setting up…

The latest GFS Ensembles keep highlighting the same area for the heaviest rain numbers…

As I’ve mentioned several times, nothing good can come from this pattern.

I will update things later today, so check back. Enjoy this mainly dry Tuesday and take care.

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