Daily Archives: February 14, 2018

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Valentine’s Evening Update

Good Wednesday evening, folks. Rounds of showers continue to push across the state, bringing locally heavy downpours to the region. Nothing has changed with the overall wet setup, but I wanted to drop by for a very quick update.

Right out  of the gate, let’s track the ongoing showers…

Temps on Thursday make a run at 70 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind. That will also spawn a few showers and thunderstorms, but the day is not a total loss.

Heavy rain moves back in Thursday night and Friday, with much colder air crashing in behind it. That may switch some of that over to a touch of frozen precipitation. A cold front then slows down, allowing for another wave of low pressure to develop along it for Saturday. That brings heavy rain back in here, especially across the southern half of the state.

Some of the models are showing a swath of snow in the north. Here’s how the NAM is handling Friday and Saturday…

Snow

The European Model is also highlighting a swath of snow in the north and northeast…

I’m not ready to bite on anything like the NAM is showing, because, well, it’s the NAM. I can see something like the European is showing.

As mentioned, the heaviest rain with that Saturday system may focus on the worst possible place… The southern and southeastern parts of Kentucky. That could cause some renewed flooding issues.

Next week looks uber-active with rounds of rain and storms coming at us from southwest to northeast. The GFS Ensembles keep showing this very well…

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:32 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Happy Valentine’s Day, everyone. There isn’t a whole lot to love about the weather out there today as rounds of rain roll across the state. This continues to look like a very wet setup that can lead to high water issues over the next few weeks.

Today’s showers can drop some local 1″ rains across the region…

Thursday is a VERY mild day with temps heading toward 70 or better in some areas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be around, especially in the north.

Rains will increase Thursday night and early Friday, when a cold front drops in from the north. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Colder air comes in behind this front, leading to the chance for a mix of precipitation as the rain tapers off Friday afternoon.

That front stalls out on top of the region, allowing another low pressure to move through on Saturday. That brings another swath of heavy rains, with maybe a touch of snow for a time in the north…

After a break in the action on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms quickly increase by Monday as a strong southwesterly flow kicks in. Temps will be very mild during this time. Next week as a whole looks very active with rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across Kentucky, increasing our flooding risk…

In the overall scheme of things, there is no change to the idea of heavy rain targeting our region over the next few weeks. The European Ensembles show what we have been talking about…

I will update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:37 am

Tracking The Increased Heavy Rain Threat

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our wet weather pattern continues to strongly show up, and is likely to cause issues over the next few weeks. Rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to high water problems as we roll forward, so you really need to stay alert in the coming days.

Our Wednesday is pretty wet with gusty showers moving across the state…

Thursday is a very windy and warm day, with highs reaching deep into the 60s for many. Areas across the south and west may see readings topping out from 70-75 if they can get enough sunshine. The main threat for showers and thunderstorms will be across the northern half of the state.

Heavy rain and thunder rolls in from north to south Thursday night into Friday. This is when we will need to watch for some local high water issues, but I don’t expect this to be widespread. There’s even the chance for some flakes on the back side.

A second low then develops and rolls our way on Saturday, brining more heavy rain and the potential for a swath of snow in the north. The GFS is FINALLY seeing this…

The GFS is also picking up on the snow in the north…

The setup for next week continues to run toward the pattern we have been outlining. A deep trough develops across the western part of the country, with a springtime ridge of high pressure across the southeast. That puts our region in between the two, with repeat heavy rains on top of us…

This can cause significant flooding and river flooding issues to develop across the entire state and surrounding states.

The CFS shows this supper wet pattern lingering through March. Check out the rainfall forecast over the next 45 days…

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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