Daily Archives: February 16, 2018

Time posted: 7:41 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We are putting the wraps on an incredibly wet day, with local 1″-2″ rains along and north of Interstate 64. Another big rain event moves in on Saturday, targeting the southeastern part of the state. This system also has a chance to produce some winter weather in the north.

A Flood Watch has been issued across southeastern Kentucky for Saturday…

High water issues are a good possibility in these areas, so please keep a close eye on water levels. The GFS seems to have a good handle on the potential for 1″-2″ of rain…

What about the threat for some slushy snow in the north and northeast? That’s still a possibility, but I’m still not terribly impressed with the potential.

The GFS has nothing sticking…

The NAM family decided to go back toward a heavy wet snowfall…

The European Model is a cross between the GFS and the NAM, with some slush potential in the northeast…

I’ll take the Euro for a thousand, Alex. 🙂 #teamspring

I have no changes on the pattern for next week… Warm, windy and stormy, with a high water threat.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rain continues to push across the state, bringing another round of high water for some. Temps are also taking a big tumble, with another round of heavy rain on the way for Saturday. This may even include a touch of winter for some, but the overriding issue continues to be the heavy rain threats going forward.

Rainfall numbers of 1″-2″ are showing up in several areas on the day, outperforming the model forecasts. This is a theme and one I hope our NWS offices don’t underplay in not being stingy with Flood Watches.

Flood Warnings are out in the northeastern part of the state, and we will need to watch several more areas for the potential for local high water issues before today’s rain shuts off…

The next round of rain rolls in on Saturday, bringing another 1″+ for some areas, with the greatest threat being across the south and east…

These are areas trying to recover from extensive flooding from earlier in the week. They’re also getting in on some heavy rains today, and should be under a Flood Watch for Saturday.

What about the snow aspect with this system. Over the past several days, I’ve said I wasn’t impressed with the odds, even with the NAM showing a big hit last night. Today’s run looks more realistic…

That system moves through quickly, with Sunday looking good. Highs hit the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Showers and storms then increase Sunday night and Monday, kicking off a warm, windy and stormy week. Here’s the setup for just the first half of next week…

The flood threat will continue to be noted through all of next week, and likely into the following week. This is a super wet setup for our part of the world.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:34 am

Watching The Weekend Setup

Good Friday, everyone. A strong cold front Is dropping southward across Kentucky, bringing gusty winds, heavy rains and a big temperature drop. That same front stalls out, bringing the potential for some interesting weather on Saturday.

As always, let’s start with today and roll forward. Rumbles of thunder may join our morning heavy rains, which may put down more than 1″ of rain in some areas. That can lead to local high water issues. Track the action…

The rain quickly ends from northwest to southeast this afternoon, with colder air taking control. Temps take a big tumble this afternoon and that cold air will play a big roll in how our Saturday system plays out. There has been a colder trend with the Saturday storm system, making for a better chance for a swath of wet snow across the northern half of the state.

You can see that on the NAM…

That particular run of the NAM thinks several inches of wet snow can fall…

The Hi Res NAM is also on that same snow train…

The latest run of the GFS is now trending toward a swath of wet snow showing up in some of the same areas…

I am not yet convinced of that swath of snow showing up, but I will update and put out a first call later today if necessary. #teamspring 🙂

In addition to the chance for some wet snow, we have to watch southeastern Kentucky for some local high water issues.

Sunday’s weather looks much better with temps rebounding into the 50s with skies becoming partly sunny. That nice won’t last very long as clouds roll back in by evening, with showers and storms developing Sunday night. This kicks off a very active period with waves of showers and storms impacting our region. The heavy rain target area may be across western and central parts of the state to start the week. Temps in this setup can make a run at 70 for a few days.

Looking farther down the road, the seasonal models are all keeping this VERY active and wet pattern going through March.

European…

CFS…

I will update things later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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