Daily Archives: February 19, 2018

Time posted: 7:36 pm

First Call For Heavy Rainfall

Good evening, folks. April temps have engulfed the bluegrass state, with records and all time monthly records possible through Tuesday. This warm air will come with a price, with flooding rains an increasing likelihood in the coming days.

The heavy rain starts in the west Tuesday night, and will roll eastward into Wednesday. That sets off an extended run of showers and storms through the upcoming weekend. Here’s a look at my current rainfall forecast…

I will update that again tonight on WKYT-TV at 11. Until then, here are your tracking tools…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:20 pm

Updating The Flood Potential

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the high increasing threat for significant flooding from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.

This has been a well telegraphed pattern for the past few weeks and is looking even more ominous as we get closer. Round of showers and storms start impacting Kentucky from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday, with additional rounds coming through the weekend.

Given the amount of thunderstorms in the mix and a wavy, stalled out boundary, the forecast models will suffer from feedback issues. That means they go back and forth with where the axis of heaviest rains will fall. The last two runs of the GFS show this well…

Several inches of rain will likely fall across Kentucky through the upcoming weekend, leading to all modes of flooding. Rounds of flash flooding, general flooding and river flooding will likely show up. Major river flooding is very possible in this type of an environment.

I would imagine Flood Watches will go up much earlier than normal to give the public a big time heads up because it’s needed.

Here are your Monday tracking toys…

I will have a rainfall forecast on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. See you guys back here for another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:44 am

Warm Temps and A Flood Threat This Week

Good Monday, everyone. We are kicking off a very active week of weather across the Commonwealth of Kentucky and surrounding states. Record highs, strong storms and heavy rains are all on the weather menu. Given the already swollen waterways and wet ground, flooding is likely to become a big player.

As usual, let’s start with today and roll forward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are zipping across the state as a warm front lifts to the north. Locally heavy downpours will be noted, along with very gusty winds…

 

By this afternoon, a lot of the stormy action will be to our north with temps surging into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Tuesday is a crazy warm day, with daily record highs a pretty good bet. All-time monthly highs for February are also possible with temps close to the 80 degree mark.

Now, let’s talk about the flooding aspect. Our rivers are already running very high, with numerous rivers under a Flood Warning, including much of the Ohio…

Some significant flooding is already forecast along the Ohio River in northern and northeastern Kentucky, especially…

Those numbers may change in the coming days, depending on future rains.

My overall idea continues to highlight our entire region for the greatest potential for flooding over the next week or so…

You can see the shower and storm train lining up through the weekend…

Several inches of rain will fall across the area through the weekend, leading to the potential for rounds of flash flooding and general flooding. The rivers are especially vulnerable for significant flooding.

Some additional action is possible next week, as we get set to close out the month of February. Once into March, there’s the potential for late season winter weather developing across much of the country. The NAO and AO are forecast to go strongly negative…

Those two, in tandem, usually mean a cold pattern for our region. If the active storm pattern continues, things could get interesting. #teamspring

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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