Daily Archives: February 20, 2018

Time posted: 7:47 pm

Updating The Flood Threat Ahead

Good evening, gang. We are putting the wraps on temperature day straight out of early June. Now comes the downside to this pattern, as rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms move in. This sets the stage for a prolonged flood threat.

A Flood Watch is already out for much of central and western Kentucky through Sunday…

That watch should have already been issued across the rest of the state, but that makes too much sense. Expect that to come later tonight… I think. Sigh.

The rainfall numbers from the European Model continues to show several inches of rain for the entire state…

Those numbers can lead to all modes of flooding across the entire region. Rounds of flash flooding, general flooding, street flooding and river flooding are all likely.

I cannot stress enough, if you live in a flood prone area, please stay alert to the potential for flooding.

Some WILD temperature swings will also show up, with a 30 degree gradient showing up from time to time. That may actually start tomorrow…

Temps may oscillate between warm and chilly in just a few hours or any one location. Get ready for some wild temp swings, folks.

In addition to the temp swings and flooding rains, Keep a close eye on the weekend for the potential for some strong or severe storms.

There’s also a strong storm and heavy rain signal showing up for the middle of next week…

That likely leads us into an ugly look for early March. Ugh.

Here are your trackers…

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 11pm and will have another KWC update later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your evening.

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Time posted: 12:38 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Today is making a run at the warmest February day on record for the bluegrass state. Gusty southwesterly winds are boosting temps to near 80 degrees in most areas. After today, it’s all about the significant flood threat that starts on Wednesday and rolls through the weekend.

I have no changes to the thoughts on this setup. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will dump several inches of rain on top of Kentucky in the coming days.

The GFS is slowly shedding some of the feedback issues and is coming more in line with other models, focusing the heavier rains farther south into our region…

The Canadian Model throws a new wrinkle into the mix, with another low developing early next week…

Flood Watches should be issued this afternoon for most of Kentucky and surrounding states. Giving the public advanced notice of potentially life-threatening weather is the mission of everyone in this business, or it should be. There is no reason not to have a long-lead Watch in advance of this kind of a setup.

Here are your tracking toys…

 

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another KWC update this evening. Enjoy the warmth and take care.

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Time posted: 1:56 am

A Significant Flood Threat Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. Flooding is likely to become a significant problem over the next several days, as rounds of showers and thunderstorms target the bluegrass state. Several inches of rain will fall from Wednesday through Sunday, so look out.

Before we get to the flood threat, let’s talk about the historic temps out there today. This will be one of the warmest February days on record for Kentucky. For some cities, it may be the warmest February day. Highs will flirt with 80 degrees, which is a typical high for early June. Wow.

The setup from Wednesday through Sunday will feature a front stalling out across our region, with waves of low pressure working along it…

That front will likely oscillate back and forth across the Ohio Valley, meaning some wild temperature rides. At times, we could see a 30 degree temp gradient setting up across Kentucky.

If we can get that front to focus farther north and west as one of those lows develops, strong to severe storms will be possible.

The European Model continues to look the most consistent in terms of totals and placement for the heaviest rains…

The GFS appears to be having some MAJOR feedback issues and that’s severely impacting the model’s placement of the heaviest rains. Shocking, I know.

I fully expect Flood Watches to go up today for much of the region. Here are your tracking toys…

 

I will have updates later today, so check back. Enjoy this historic day of warmth and take care.

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