Monthly Archives: March 2018

Time posted: 5:26 pm

Wild Weather As We Usher In April

Good Saturday evening, gang. Our wild March pattern is about to roll over and become a wild April Pattern. If there’s a specific type of weather you like, chances are you’re going to find it during the first week of the new month.

Let’s start with the system working in this evening. It’s a cold front, bringing an increase in rain and wind from west to east…

That front slows down across southern Kentucky late tonight into early Easter Sunday. That allows a wave of low pressure to develop and roll across the state. We will see some dry hours, but precipitation quickly increases during the afternoon and evening. Much of this is in the form of rain, but some wintry weather shows up in parts of the north during the late evening into the overnight.

I like the map I made on Friday…

The computer models are seeing a swath of light accumulating snows showing up, but may be overdoing things just a bit. Here’s the NAM…

Canadian

European

Some slushy accumulations are a good bet in the north on Sunday night.

Temps rise on Monday with a few more showers ahead of a warm front. That unleashes a WARM day for Tuesday…

If we can get enough sunshine, temps will make a run at 80 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind. This all comes crashing down behind a cold front arriving Tuesday night. High winds and strong thunderstorms are possible…

Temps drop more than 40 degrees into Wednesday, with the potential for a few snow flurries or snow showers on a northwest wind…

Let’s review… snow Sunday night, 80 on Tuesday, with more snowflakes on Wednesday. Kentucky weather is crazy and I’m not just talking about the dude on twitter. 🙂

Lows by Thursday morning may cause some damage to vegetation. Readings may drop into the low and middle 20s…

Notice all that bitter cold up in Canada? That has to go somewhere, and it works into the country by the weekend. That’s when another system then moves in here late Friday into Saturday, and may take on a winter look…

Lows behind that have a chance to flirt with the teens next weekend, with below zero numbers showing up as close by as Iowa on the GFS…

Go ahead and cry… I know you want to. It’s ok.

Have a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

A Busy Easter Weekend Of Weather

Good Saturday, everyone. We are putting the wraps on what has been an incredible month of March across Kentucky. It’s been a very cold month, with record setting snows and a lot of rain. As we get ready to flip the calendar to April on Easter Sunday, there isn’t a ton of change in the overall pattern.

This, obviously, spells bad news for spring lovers, as we have a while before we can get into true spring.

Let’s start with today’s weather then roll forward. Highs hit the mid and upper 60s in the east and southeast, with those numbers scaling back toward the north and west. That’s because another cold front is moving into this region, with clouds and showers increasing later this afternoon…

That action will then continue into tonight, as a cold front slows down on top of us. That can keep a few showers going in the south and southeast early Easter Sunday morning, but the big news comes later in the day. This is when a wave of low pressure develops and quickly rolls eastward along the front.

Rain and a swath of snow develops by evening and races eastward across Kentucky. The best chance for snow is across the northern half of the state…

Light, slushy accumulations will be possible, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces in the far north. Sigh. #teamwinter 🙁

Monday will find temps rebounding pretty quickly, but it comes with an ugly price. Showers will be on and off throughout the day, as a warm front lifts northward through the state. Temps will surge by Monday night and Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday may hit the 70s…

Don’t get used to it, a cold front wipes that out while you sleep Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be common, to go along with gusty winds…

That’s a major temp drop coming behind that front, with freezing temps showing up.

Another big storm system moves in late next week or next weekend and may unlock even colder air. This low temperature forecast is straight out of the heart of winter…

Yes, those are below zero numbers showing up in the upper Midwest. Once again… What the what is going on around here?

I will have updates later today, so check back. Enjoy the final day of March and take care.

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Time posted: 12:45 pm

Watching The Late Easter Sunday Snow Threat

Good Friday afternoon, folks. As our current system slowly pulls way from the region, we start to focus on the active Easter Weekend that’s kicking off. It’s a weekend that will bring everything from nice weather, to showers, to rain, and a period of snow. That sounds about right, this spring.

Today’s chilly showers are slowly working away from the north and east…

Saturday is nice and mild during the day, but showers arrive by evening as a cold front drops in. That front will then put the brakes on across the southern half of the state on Easter Sunday. We will get several dry hours during the day, but a wave of low pressure puts a quick end to that later in the day.

That low will bring rain and a swath of snow across the state through Sunday night…

That can drop some light accumulations across the northern half of the state and that ain’t no foolin’. Here’s the latest GFS snow map…

The NAM is now seeing the same thing…

If anything sticks, it’s likely to be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

That system moves away quickly Sunday night and early Monday, with temps surging behind it. We hit the 50s on Monday, with readings that can reach the low 70s by Tuesday. This is ahead of a VERY strong cold front marching into our region Tuesday night. That may bring high winds and a line of strong storms through here…

Temps drop big time behind this front, as cold air floods back in.

The pattern next weekend has a very interesting look to it, with winter air controlling much of the country, and an active jet stream. Don’t be surprised if we are tracking a huge storm system into our part of the world.

I probably won’t be able to post this evening, but will have a full update later tonight.

Make it a good one and take are.

13 Comments

Time posted: 1:44 am

Easter Weekend Snow Potential?

Good Friday, folks. Our Easter Weekend is off and running, with thoughts of spring dancing in our minds. While we will see some spring days ahead, true spring is still a ways away from getting started. The crazy pattern we have been stuck in for March looks to roll over into April. Blah.

Our Good Friday is starting on a damp note with chilly showers for many areas…

The rain will slowly decrease through the rest of the day. with temps only in the 40s for several spots, with the west doing much better.

Saturday continues to look good until late afternoon into the evening. Temps hit the 60s in the east, with 50s in the north and west, where clouds and showers move in quicker. That action works to the east and southeast into Easter Sunday morning.

The front then puts the brakes on, allowing for a wave of low of low pressure to develop along it and roll eastward. That allows precipitation to develop later in the afternoon and evening. The models are trending colder with this setup and are bringing the potential for a rain/snow mix or a period of light snow across the northern half of the state.

Here’s the GFS snowfall for Sunday night…

The Canadian has a similar look..

Temps will rebound quickly late Monday into Tuesday, ahead of another potent cold front. That ushers in showers and storms and a big temp drop…

For some time, there has been a signal for a potential winter weather maker showing up next weekend. The GFS has shown it, but can’t maintain it. The European Model has been showing it regularly, as has the Canadian…

If you feel like crying… Just go ahead and do it. 🙁 But, you can’t say I haven’t been warning you that winter was going to fight deep into April. 😉

If we take a look at April as a whole, the analogs are for colder than normal temps, and the seasonal models agree. Here’s the CFS for the month as a whole…

That’s pretty unreal to see temps forecast to be THAT far below normal. It’s a setup that is also VERY active and that carries us through early May. The CFS precipitation forecast shows our region taking the brunt of the action…

Ugh. I will update things again later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:34 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. The heavy rain train is slowly pulling out of the station, but it’s leaving behind a lot of water across our part of the world. Local flooding issues will be noted into the wee hours of the morning, then things slowly start to improve.

Even as things are improving, that doesn’t mean it’s all of a sudden going to become awesome around here. If anything, it’s a littler uglier over the next few weeks.

Before we get to all that, here are your tracking tools for the evening rains…

The weekend setup continues to look the same with two systems impacting the weather. One rolls in here late Saturday into early Sunday, with another late Sunday into early Monday. Combined these two can produce a half inch or so of rain for some…

This does NOT mean the weekend is a washout… Far from it. Much of the daylight hours on Saturday are pretty nice with temps running toward 60. Easter Sunday will also have several dry hours, but looks fairly chilly. As a matter of fact, the new GFS has it chilly enough for a swath of snow during the evening…

As spring and winter continue to fight it out, winter still holds the upper hand through the middle of April. That does NOT mean some days won’t produce spring temps and nice weather… They will. It means the overall pattern is skewed much colder than normal.

You can see that well on the GFS Ensembles…

With the battle going on, a lot of precipitation falls in our region. The bullseye continues to be on our region…

With the cold thrown into the mix, I don’t think we have seen our last snows flying. The GFS Ensembles agree…

That’s ugly for a lot of the country!

I will focus more on April and the spring setup with my late night post.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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