Monthly Archives: March 2018

Time posted: 12:19 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. As rounds of heavy rain keep rolling across the state, we continue to track the flood threat for much of the state. As we do this, we are also looking ahead toward a very ugly first week or two of April.

Before we get to all that, here are the tracking tools for today’s rain and possible flooding…

I have no changes from my earlier thoughts on how the weekend plays out. The same goes for next week, with winter and spring continuing to smack each other around.

The GFS Ensembles snow forecast for the next two weeks isn’t a good look for spring lovers…

You have a while before true spring can lock in. I will update things later this evening, so check back.

Enjoy the afternoon and take care.

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Time posted: 1:39 am

Thursday Flood Threat Tracker

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s another absolutely soggy day across the bluegrass state, as additional rounds of showers and storms work through here. This keeps the flood and flash flood threat going through the evening hours, at least.

Another 1″-3″ may fall today in some areas, especially in a southwest to northeast corridor. Folks within this region have the greatest threat for seeing flooding issues develop. If you live in a low-lying or flood-prone area, please continue to stay alert to the flood potential.

Here are the latest watches and warnings…

Leftover showers will slowly disappear on Friday, with a cooler wind blowing some better weather into the region. That lasts into Saturday, but quickly changes by the late afternoon and evening. That’s when showers return ahead of a cold front. Those showers last into VERY early on Easter Sunday, then exit east.

Easter Sunday afternoon is better, but another fast-moving system arrives that night into Monday. That has some mainly cold rains with it, but a flake can’t be ruled out.

After that, spring and winter continue their epic battle, leading to some wild temp swings and potential storms. Here’s the middle of next week…

How about the first weekend of April on the GFS…

The same period on the Canadian…

True spring is still a long way away, my friends. Sigh.

Let’s get back to where we are right now. Your radars will help you track today’s heavy rain and flood threat…

I will update things again later today, so stop back in. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 7:33 pm

Flood Threat Continues

Good evening, gang. The rain train rolls on across the bluegrass state, with waves of showers and storms rumbling through here. This has already put down 1″-2″ of rain in many areas, with another 1″-3″ on the way tonight through Thursday.

Our Flood Watch continues…

There isn’t much more I can add to the potential for flooding. We starting sounding the horn on the potential this past weekend, and mother nature is taking care of the rest.

Looking toward Easter Weekend, we have two systems to track. The first arrives late Saturday and lasts into Easter Sunday Morning. That will bring some gusty showers that may end with a snowflake mixed in…

Much of Easter Sunday afternoon looks to be in chilly, but good shape.

The next system then zips in here Sunday night into Monday, with a  swath of rain and snow possible…

The pattern next week remains VERY active, with several rounds of precipitation and cold shots fighting it out with spring.

Here are your flood trackers to take you through the evening…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:38 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Flood Threat Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rains have settled into the bluegrass state and will stick around through Thursday evening. This action has already dropped more than an inch of rain, with several inches to go for some areas. This sets up the continued threat for flooding and flash flooding.

A Flood Watch is now out for most of Kentucky through Thursday…

Overnight and early morning rain totals have been impressive, with several areas showing more than 1″ through 11am. Here are the Kentucky Mesonet rain numbers through that time…

If we look at how much additional rain may fall, the models are still amped up. The NAM has another 4″ for some…

The short range Canadian Model is very similar…

You put those numbers down on top of what we already have, and flooding issues will likely develop.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and another update later this evening on KWC. Until then, track away…

Have a great afternoon and take care.

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Time posted: 1:40 am

Tracking The Flood Potential

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are pushing across the state today, with more rounds rolling through Thursday. This sets the stage for an increased potential for flooding across many areas of the Commonwealth.

The latest runs of the NAM and Hi Res NAM are similar to my ran forecast, with a healthy corridor of 2″-4″ rains, with locally higher amounts…

Both model runs actually have some 5″ amounts showing up. Those runs match up well with my ongoing rain forecast…

Some local 5″ amounts are possible.

The latest Canadian rain forecast also matches up well…

The poor GFS was the last to figure out the heavy rain was actually hitting Kentucky and not splitting us (like it insisted on for days), but it’s matching up with everything else finally…

Here’s what the GFS looked like on Monday…

It had ZERO model support from anything else and is a far cry from what it started showing on Tuesday. I suspect blindly following the GFS is why Flood Watches have been way too slow in being issued. I’m guessing those Flood Watches will be issued to start the day… I think… Maybe… Possibly?

Chilly showers will finally move away early Friday, with mainly dry weather from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Another cold front moves in Saturday night into Easter Morning, with some chilly showers and even a slight chance for some flakes…

Things improve by Easter afternoon, then things turn ugly again into next week.

I will update our flood threat later today, so check back. Until then, here are your tracking toys to start the day…

Have a good one and take care.

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