Daily Archives: March 10, 2018

Time posted: 9:55 pm

NAM Targets Western/Southern Kentucky

Good evening once again. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update to show what the NAM is cooking for late Sunday into Sunday night.

The model keeps the main snow threat across the southern half of the state, with a comma head of snow rolling due east…

Here’s the snow forecast from that particular run…

Do NOT take the placement and numbers as the absolute gospel. They are coming from one run of one computer model. It’s also showing snowfall and not snow depth.

The Hi Res NAM has a similar comma head of snow rolling from west to east…

The snow map from that also targets western Kentucky, and gets more choppy the farther east it goes…

All this begins as rain, then switches over to snow as dynamic cooling takes over in the comma head of precipitation. Even then, temps maybe marginal, adding to the accumulation dilemma.

As you can see, there will be a very sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the precipitation shield.

The Winter Storm Threat continues and I will update things in a few hours. Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 5:18 pm

Winter Storm THREAT Sunday Night

Good evening, everyone. Let’s go ahead and upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT for late Sunday into Sunday night. For those new to the game. this is a heads up to the POTENTIAL of 4″ or more of snow falling in parts of our region. If confidence increases, we go to an Alert. If confidence decreases, we scrap the Threat and go along our merry way. 🙂

Here’s my current area of concern along with some thoughts…

Pay attention to the headlines, folks. 😉

I’ve said all week that I was worried about getting to Saturday and seeing the models all start to shift north with our storm system. Sure enough, the infamous north/northwest trend is with us.

The GFS has been the ONLY model that stayed the course on the farther north and west track. It continues to show that now, but has a lot of newfound friends.

Here’s the latest GFS…

Here’s the snowfall forecast from that run…

The NAM is a healthy hit…

Here’s the snowfall output from that particular run. THIS IS ONLY A MODEL FORECAST…

The Hi Res NAM offers up a similar solution…

The European Model continues to trend north and stronger…

The late afternoon short range version of the Canadian Model has jumped into the snow mix…

That same model had nothing of note on the run from 6 hours earlier.

I will throw you a rare 4th update later this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:15 pm

Almost To Threat Level For Late Sunday

Good afternoon, everyone. I’m very close to pulling the trigger on a full blow Winter Storm Threat for late Sunday into early Monday. I’ve talked about our system likely coming a little farther north on the models, and we are seeing that happening right now.

Still, I’d like to see additional model runs this afternoon and evening before going “all in” on this system.

Here are my preliminary areas to watch and some thoughts…

You will notice I put the “High bust potential” on there. That goes both ways. If this system is stronger and farther north, that would be a lot more snow. If the system is weaker and farther south, forget about snow.

The morning runs of the GFS and NAM both went all in on our storm, but disagree on placement and track. Here’s the GFS…

This is ONLY a model snowfall forecast from the GFS…

The NAM has a big time swath of snow, but it’s oriented more west to east across the southern half of the state..

Again, this is ONLY a computer model snowfall forecast from the NAM…

The Canadian continues to trend north and more consolidated with the lead low into the southern Appalachian mountains…

It would appear our old friend, “the famous northwest trend”, is back in business, for now. Let’s see if he’s still around later today.

Regardless of what happens with this low, snow showers and cold temps will kick in for the first half of next week.

Keep checking back for updates, and follow me on twitter for some thoughts (on the snow potential and the Cats ;))

Have a good one and take care.

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