Daily Archives: March 11, 2018

Time posted: 6:32 pm

Winter Storm ALERT Continues

Good evening, everyone. A significant winter storm is working eastward across Kentucky, bringing a band of very heavy snow with it. This will put down a thumping snow in many areas, with the potential for 6″+ showing up in a narrow corridor.

Here are my updated thoughts…

The short-range models are VERY emphatic on this event and suggest higher totals…

HRRR

RAP

Those match up well with what the NAM continues to show…

Hi-res NAM is similar…

GFS is now the lowest of the bunch…

I will be on WKYT-TV later this evening, so tune in. I will try to update the blog as I can.

Here are your tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62

Paducah

I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

Enjoy the evening and take care.

56 Comments

Time posted: 12:34 pm

Winter Storm ALERT

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to get a quick update out to upgrade to a WInter Storm Alert for parts of the region. A corridor of heavy snow will develop from west to east later this evening and carry us through early Monday.

The exact path of this heaviest band is still a bit uncertain, but it’s put up or shut up time in terms of forecasting. 🙂

I’m likely being conservative with some of the totals in the red, but here ya go…

PLEASE read the headlines attached to the map. Notice the wide range I’m leaving open, because I do expect some “jump” spots in there. On the flip side, some “thumping” spots will also be in there. All of those are impossible to pinpoint until the event actually starts to unfold. The ALERT does not mean everybody reading this will see a winter storm, but several areas are likely to verify.

That is also NOT the final call. That comes later today.

As far as the models, the NAM continues to be very aggressive, while trending a little north…

The GFS is similar, but a hair north…

I like what the GFS is doing with some of the “jump” and “thump” pockets showing up. Just don’t expect it to show exactly where those will be.

I expect the Winter Weather Advisory to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning soon for parts of the region…

Here’s regional radar to track the system…

Updates will come later today. Make it a good one and take care.

41 Comments

Time posted: 1:41 am

Winter Storm Threat Continues

Good Sunday, everyone. On the day we “spring forward”, nothing about the forecast looks much like spring. A developing storm system will bring rain and snow across parts of Kentucky late today into tonight. A band of heavy wet snow has the chance to put down 4″+ in some areas and that’s why we are in Winter Storm Threat Mode.

For those new to the game. this is a heads up to the POTENTIAL of 4″ or more of snow falling in parts of our region. If confidence increases, we go to an Alert. If confidence decreases, we scrap the Threat and go along our merry way. I prefer the downgrade, but Mother Nature doesn’t care about what I want.

This does NOT mean you yard will pick up 4″ or more of snow, but it does mean some areas of the state can certainly pick up those totals. Here’s the area most at risk…

Please pay close attention to the headlines I’ve included on that map. With a system like this, there are a lot of variables at play that can alter placement of the heaviest snow, and the totals it produces.

This action is coming from a coma head of precipitation rolling from west to east across the state. The models disagree on exactly where that happens. The NAM has been farthest south, but the new GFS is targeting areas much farther north..

The snowfall map from that run really drops the hammer on central Kentucky…

The Canadian Model is very similar to the GFS…

The short range Canadian Model continues to drift north and has a heavier shield of snow than earlier runs…

Keep in mind, there will be a VERY sharp cutoff to the northern edge of the precipitation shield.

Winds will also be very gusty as this system rolls in, with those winds becoming much colder in the coming days. A strong northwesterly flow will be accompanied by a clipper-type disturbance diving in here late Tuesday and Wednesday. That should produce widespread snow showers and squalls, with some accumulation possible…

#teamspring continues to take a beating here in March. However, that may change late next week into the weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see temps REALLY take off and for some strong storms to come calling.

Back to today’s system, I full expect Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories to be issued early today. The map below should update with the latest…

Multiple updates are coming your way today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

40 Comments