Daily Archives: March 18, 2018

Time posted: 2:31 pm

Updating The Potential for Storms and Snow

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to track a super-duper active pattern across our part of the world. It’s one that will deliver thunderstorms, heavy rain, and some snow over the next few days. As I look farther down the weather road, I see a lot of wet weather returning.

Let’s focus on the next few days, as we have two storm systems moving in. The first arrives Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east. The track of the low is across southern Kentucky, with the potential for strong or severe storms south of that track. This puts areas of western and far southern Kentucky at risk for a few severe storms on Monday…

Given the amount of shear ahead of that low, central Tennessee could be looking at one heck of a severe weather outbreak, with a few tornadoes possible. If you live in southern parts of the bluegrass state, we will be watching your area very closely.

Heavy rain will also be noted over the next few days, with some 1″-2″ rain amounts possible…

A second low then develops and works into far southeastern Kentucky late Tuesday into Wednesday. That will bring rain and some snow back into the region, with the potential for another comma head of snow. Where does that set up? The NAM likes central and eastern Kentucky…

The hot off the presses European Model is similar, but it’s even more generous with the snow…

The GFS is targeting areas of Ohio with the best snow potential…

No offense, buckeyes, but you can have it.

The Canadian is a cross between the two models, but it does keep the heaviest snow in Ohio…

There are still lots of uncertainties on where that second low tracks, and just how strong it gets. Stay tuned!

For the past few months, I haven’t been shy about getting you guys ready for this hyper-active pattern we have been in since the middle of February. This pattern keeps rolling on and I think it takes us right on through spring. My growing concern is for a ramped up severe weather season and spring flood season.

The GFS precipitation totals over the next few weeks aren’t going to work out exactly, but they are showing the potential for a lot of water…

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:53 am

Storms and Snow Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a small break in the busy March weather pattern, but don’t get too used to it. The third month of the year continues to bring the action, and will throw several more systems our way for the week ahead. Everything from thunderstorms to snow are on the weather menu. Yippee 🙁

Let us begin with today and roll ahead. Highs range from the upper 50s to low 60s for most of the state. Clouds will quickly increase across the west, with showers and thunderstorms developing later tonight. That action then rolls eastward across the rest of Kentucky on Monday.

That’s when another potent storm system arrives. Heavy rain, thunder and gusty winds will all be noted.

Another low then works into southeastern Kentucky later Tuesday and Wednesday. That system provides us with rain and snow, with the potential for wraparound snows developing across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Watch both of the systems showing up around here. All models now show this.

The NAM only goes through Wednesday morning, but you can clearly see the comma head of snow…

The Canadian has it…

The GFS keeps showing it…

Here’s the snow accumulation map from that run of the GFS…

The overall setup with this isn’t too dissimilar to the one that produced nearly a foot of snow last Sunday night. That said. no two systems behave exactly the same.

Can we get a threat out of this? Yep.

Temps behind that second low are COLD, with some areas in the 30s for highs. Lows by Thursday morning may even reach the upper teens in a few spots.

Another storm system then develops and heads right at us by the weekend.

I will hook you up with updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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