Daily Archives: March 19, 2018

Time posted: 7:37 pm

Winter Storm THREAT Continues

Good evening, gang. We are wrapping up the final full day of winter, with mild temps and thunderstorms. Spring arrives on Tuesday with a Winter Storm THREAT for Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s when snow develops across much of Kentucky.

In the short-term, showers and storms are working eastward across the state, with a few strong storms possible in the south. Local severe weather can’t be ruled out along the Tennessee border…

My overall thoughts for the snow potential haven’t changed. Moderate to locally heavy snow will wrap around low pressure just to our east late Tuesday and Wednesday. We will have some melting that cuts into amounts, but here’s the First Call For Snowfall…

I’ve highlighted up to 5″ amounts across parts of north-central Kentucky, where the wrap around may be heaviest. This is a general 1″-4″ snowfall for most of the state, with most coming Tuesday night and early Wednesday. We will likely see widespread cancellations and delays on Wednesday.

A Winter Weather Advisory has already been issued for much of central and eastern Kentucky…

Look for that to be expanded much farther west, with the potential for an upgrade for a few counties.

A check of the forecast models show the European Model continuing to show some pretty hefty totals…

The Hi Res NAM is similar…

Our Winter Storm Threat continues, and I will have a new call for snowfall on WKYT-TV at 11pm. Happy Spring! 🙂

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:35 pm

Tracking Storms and A Winter Storm THREAT

Good afternoon, everyone. Showers and storms are increasing across the region today, with another March snowfall waiting in the wings. That arrives later Tuesday into Wednesday and should impact much of the bluegrass state. This is now a Winter Storm THREAT.

For those new to the game. this is a heads up to the POTENTIAL of 4″ or more of snow falling in parts of our region. If confidence increases, we go to an Alert. If confidence decreases, we scrap the Threat and go along our merry way.

Before we get to the snow, let’s update the rain and storm action. There continues to be a risk of strong to severe storms across far southern parts of Kentucky. Hail and high winds are the main threats, with areas of Tennessee under the gun for a tornado outbreak. Here’s the current risk outlook from the SPC…

Old Man Winter won’t go away and will throw another decent snowfall our way later Tuesday into Wednesday. This happens as low pressure works into southeastern Kentucky…

You can see a very broad comma head of snow wrapping around the decaying low as it works into West Virginia, transferring energy to another nor’easter.

Rain switches to snow from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening, with areas of heavy snow developing through Wednesday. A few to several inches of snow may fall during this time. Here’s the area most at risk…

Much of this falls Tuesday night into Wednesday, with an increasing risk of widespread cancellations and delays. Can some areas pick up more than 4″ of wet snow? Yes. Do I think this will approach the totals we had a week ago today? No.

I will have a First Call For Snowfall coming later today on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm.

Here’s a check of the model snowfall numbers…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

GFS

Here are your storm tracking tools for the afternoon…

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:21 am

Thunderstorms Before Another Snowfall

Good Monday, everyone. We have two storm systems ready to impact our weather over the next couple of days. They will bring everything from thunderstorms, to snow to our part of the world. That last sentence goes right to the heart of the Winter verses Spring fight we continue to see. It’s epic! 🙂

The first low out there today is crossing far southern Kentucky, bringing heavy rain and some storms across the state. Areas along and south of the low are on guard for the possibility of severe thunderstorms. That includes southern parts of the bluegrass state…

If you live in these areas, damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Areas of Tennessee are really under the gun today.

For the rest of Kentucky, heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ is possible, along with very gusty winds.

The second low then develops on Tuesday and rolls into far southeastern Kentucky. This will bring rain and snow that switches to all snow for much of the sate. Here’s the NAM…

That run shows the potential for several inches of snow to fall…

The Hi Res NAM only goes through Tuesday night, but is also showing a nice “comma head” of snow…

Here’s the snow map just through Tuesday night…

The European Model is very close to the above runs of the NAM. Here’s the snow map through Wednesday…

The GFS is a little farther east, but that’s also a bias of the model…

As we inch closer to this system, the models are becoming much more expansive with the snow potential. There is a real chance they are underdoing the intensity of the wind driven snows. Once again, this setup isn’t too dissimilar to what we had one week ago this morning.

There’s a chance I upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT later today.

In the meantime, here are your tracking tools to start the day…

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.

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