Daily Archives: March 22, 2018

Time posted: 7:21 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the Winter Storm THREAT for parts of the region to start the upcoming weekend.

In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts haven’t changed, with the greatest threat for heavy snow across the north and northeast. That said, the model trend, sans the NAM, has been nudging this thing a little farther south.

The European Model precipitation type shows the fine line we are walking, between heavy rain an heavy snow. Notice there is only a VERY narrow band of mixed rain and snow, with a touch of sleet to start…

This is not a freezing rain setup.

Here’s the snow map from that run of the European…

The European Ensembles have a similar placement…

The GFS has a similar placement for the heaviest snows…

The afternoon run of the RGEM (short range Canadian) only goes out through midday Saturday, and is very similar to the European…

Last night, and countless times over the years, I talked about the NAM overdoing Warm Air Advection. That’s a well known bias of the model, which usually results in precipitation being too far north. After a normal looking 12z run, the 18z run blew up to the north…

Again, that looks too far north and too widespread because the model overdoes Warm Air Advection.

My earlier thoughts remain my current thoughts on the areas most at risk…

Here is a look at the Winter Storm Watch for the north…

I should have a First Call For Snowfall late tonight. Have a great evening and take care.

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