Daily Archives: March 29, 2018

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. The heavy rain train is slowly pulling out of the station, but it’s leaving behind a lot of water across our part of the world. Local flooding issues will be noted into the wee hours of the morning, then things slowly start to improve.

Even as things are improving, that doesn’t mean it’s all of a sudden going to become awesome around here. If anything, it’s a littler uglier over the next few weeks.

Before we get to all that, here are your tracking tools for the evening rains…

The weekend setup continues to look the same with two systems impacting the weather. One rolls in here late Saturday into early Sunday, with another late Sunday into early Monday. Combined these two can produce a half inch or so of rain for some…

This does NOT mean the weekend is a washout… Far from it. Much of the daylight hours on Saturday are pretty nice with temps running toward 60. Easter Sunday will also have several dry hours, but looks fairly chilly. As a matter of fact, the new GFS has it chilly enough for a swath of snow during the evening…

As spring and winter continue to fight it out, winter still holds the upper hand through the middle of April. That does NOT mean some days won’t produce spring temps and nice weather… They will. It means the overall pattern is skewed much colder than normal.

You can see that well on the GFS Ensembles…

With the battle going on, a lot of precipitation falls in our region. The bullseye continues to be on our region…

With the cold thrown into the mix, I don’t think we have seen our last snows flying. The GFS Ensembles agree…

That’s ugly for a lot of the country!

I will focus more on April and the spring setup with my late night post.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:19 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. As rounds of heavy rain keep rolling across the state, we continue to track the flood threat for much of the state. As we do this, we are also looking ahead toward a very ugly first week or two of April.

Before we get to all that, here are the tracking tools for today’s rain and possible flooding…

I have no changes from my earlier thoughts on how the weekend plays out. The same goes for next week, with winter and spring continuing to smack each other around.

The GFS Ensembles snow forecast for the next two weeks isn’t a good look for spring lovers…

You have a while before true spring can lock in. I will update things later this evening, so check back.

Enjoy the afternoon and take care.

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Time posted: 1:39 am

Thursday Flood Threat Tracker

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s another absolutely soggy day across the bluegrass state, as additional rounds of showers and storms work through here. This keeps the flood and flash flood threat going through the evening hours, at least.

Another 1″-3″ may fall today in some areas, especially in a southwest to northeast corridor. Folks within this region have the greatest threat for seeing flooding issues develop. If you live in a low-lying or flood-prone area, please continue to stay alert to the flood potential.

Here are the latest watches and warnings…

Leftover showers will slowly disappear on Friday, with a cooler wind blowing some better weather into the region. That lasts into Saturday, but quickly changes by the late afternoon and evening. That’s when showers return ahead of a cold front. Those showers last into VERY early on Easter Sunday, then exit east.

Easter Sunday afternoon is better, but another fast-moving system arrives that night into Monday. That has some mainly cold rains with it, but a flake can’t be ruled out.

After that, spring and winter continue their epic battle, leading to some wild temp swings and potential storms. Here’s the middle of next week…

How about the first weekend of April on the GFS…

The same period on the Canadian…

True spring is still a long way away, my friends. Sigh.

Let’s get back to where we are right now. Your radars will help you track today’s heavy rain and flood threat…

I will update things again later today, so stop back in. Have a good one and take care.

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