Daily Archives: April 5, 2018
Time posted: 7:35 pm
Good evening, folks. We continue with the Winter Storm Threat, but things are trending away from this meeting the threshold to be upgraded to an Alert. Our storm system is going to bring a swath of snow across the state, but the moisture supply doesn’t look as impressive as before.
Here’s the First Call For Snowfall…
Be sure to read the headlines on the snow map. 🙂 Can things continue to shift around? Sure. But, we are running out of time and the overall trend is pretty hard to ignore. This is why I waited so long to put out a snow forecast… I just didn’t feel comfortable with the setup.
Winter Storm Watches are still out for much of the state, but I expect this to end up being more of a Winter Weather Advisory type system…
This is a quick-hitter, with Saturday’s weather improving from west to east early on. It’s still cold, though, with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Another system moves in late Sunday and Monday with some rain and snow.
The second half of next week looks MUCH milder with temps making a run toward the 70s. I can see the severe storms threat increasing during this time, though.
I will update things on WKYT starting at 11. Make it a good one and take care.
Time posted: 12:27 pm
Good afternoon, gang. We continue with the Winter Storm THREAT for Friday night and Saturday morning. The early day trend among the models is now for a much weaker storm system with a slight push farther to the south and east.
For those new to the game. this is a heads up to the POTENTIAL of 4″ or more of snow falling in parts of our region. If confidence increases, we go to an Alert. If confidence decreases, we scrap the Threat and go along our merry way.
Winter Storm Watches are up for much of the region…
If we look at the forecast models, we find the NAM going from one extreme to the other. The new run puts down a few inches, mainly in the east…
The GFS is also lighter than earlier runs, but isn’t a wimpy as the what the NAM shows…
My thoughts a more in line with what the GFS is showing and I will have a First Call For Snowfall map coming on WKYT-TV starting at 4.
This system moves away VERY quickly Saturday morning, leaving behind a cold, but mainly dry day.
One reason we are likely seeing a weaker trend showing up, is because the follow up system moving in by late Sunday looks stronger…
That could bring another round of snow to parts of the region, to go along with a very ugly looking pattern into early next week.
My time is short, so that’s all you get for now. I will have another update this evening, so check back.
Have a good one and take care.
Time posted: 2:20 am
Good Thursday, folks. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for Friday night and Saturday. A developing storm system will take aim at the bluegrass state and lower Ohio Valley, bringing the potential for several inches of slushy spring snows. Say that 3 times. 🙂
Let’s think of today as the calm before the winter storm. Things are frigid this morning, with lows into the 20s. The afternoon looks pretty good with highs in the 50s for many. Areas of the west and south may reach 60 or a little better.
Let’s get into Friday and let the fun begin. Here’s a breakdown:
- Highs can reach the 60 degree mark by early Friday afternoon as winds begin to crank.
- Clouds will quickly roll in during the afternoon, with rain developing as we get deeper into the day and evening.
- Temps then drop rapidly from northwest to southeast, as our storm system skirts by to our south and east.
- A band of VERY heavy snow will set up across the state, potentially putting down several inches of wet snow.
- It will likely snow hard enough to cover roads for a while later Friday night into Saturday morning.
- Where does this band of heavy snow set up? Here’s my current thinking (and this will likely change today)…
- That can be adjusted north or south, depending on how the track of the low goes.
- South of the band of heavy snow, rain will be heavy and could cause some local flooding issues.
- Temps Friday night drop all the way into the 20s, with highs on Saturday staying in the 30s for several areas. Winds will make it feel colder.
- Saturday night is an interesting night. If we can indeed get snow and keep it on the ground, temps can tank. Lows may reach the teens for one of the very few times on record in April.
A quick check of the computer models show the NAM going crazy with this storm…
The NAM tends to get a little fired up, so those numbers are likely too high.
The GFS is a little more gentle, but still historic for the month…
The European Model is a little farther south with the new run…
The rest of the weekend looks amazingly cold for this time of the year, with the chance for some areas to not get out of the 30s for highs. Another system then moves in late Sunday into early next week and may bring another round of snow and rain.
If you’re looking for some good news… I’m FINALLY starting to see the end of this pattern. Things begin to really change late next week into the following week. Go CRAZY!!!! 🙂
I will have updates later today, including the often imitated, but never duplicated “First Call For Snowfall”. Make it a good one and take care.