Monthly Archives: May 2018

Time posted: 1:49 am

Alberto Will Likely Impact Our Weather

Good Saturday, everyone. We have scattered showers and storms rolling across Kentucky today, all part of a steamy and, sometimes, stormy Memorial Day Weekend. Something else that’s part of the Memorial Day Weekend is Tropical/Subtropical Storm Alberto. That system is down in the Gulf and has a good chance to impact our weather early next week.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Today’s storms may put down some torrential rains, leading to local high water issues. The same can be said for Sunday, but the storms on Memorial Day may not have the same coverage as today and Sunday.

Temps outside of storms will be VERY toasty, with humidity levels off the charts. Basically, it’s a tropical feeling holiday weekend in the bluegrass state.

Each of the past 2 years, the remnant low from a tropical system moved directly across Kentucky. Can we make it 3 in a row with Tropical Storm Alberto? That’s a real possibility as we head into the first half of next week. This storm is down in the Gulf of Mexico and heading toward the central Gulf for a Memorial Day landfall.

If you go back and read my posts from early May, I pointed out the increased activity around Florida was likely a signal on where early season tropical development would happen. Hello, Alberto! 🙂

Here’s the latest on the storm from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

You can see how the NHC track brings that system into the bluegrass state and matches all available guidance. Check out the spaghetti plots from the hurricane models…

The European Model continues to show the leftovers of Alberto moving right on top of us by Wednesday…

The model then follows that up with another system diving in from the west, bringing additional showers and storms…

Those two together bring a lot of rain to the region. Check out the European Model rain totals through next week…

The GFS is now very similar looking with Alberto and the system following it…

The Canadian has been ahead of all the other models with the track of Alberto and continues to bring it right on top of Kentucky…

The ICON model looks similar…

Beyond all this, there is an increasing signal for trough to finally move back into the eastern part of the country. That could cool us down in early June.

Here are your Saturday tracking tools…

I may throw you guys another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:31 am

A Few Storms Start Memorial Day Weekend

Good Friday to one and all. The scattered storm train is rolling back into Kentucky today, kicking off another stormy setup for the next week and change. Of course, the timing on this includes the big Memorial Day Weekend that’s kicking off today.

Scattered storms will develop this afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat across the central and east. This is a sign of things to come as we establish a conveyor belt of moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into next week. That will fire up rounds of showers and storms, with the potential for heavy rains.

This stream of tropical moisture will, in part, come from our developing tropical system in the Gulf. This system will likely become Alberto…

That system will head toward the central Gulf coast this weekend, with many models ramping it up right before coming ashore…

From there, the European Model brings the remnants right on top of Kentucky by Wednesday…

The Canadian Model has been saying this for days, and continues to do so…

The GFS continues to play a major game of catch up to the other models, but is slowly coming around to a similar idea…

If the remnants do indeed make their way into Kentucky, that would obviously up the ante on the flooding potential. It would also mark the third consecutive year with the remnant low from a tropical system moving into the bluegrass state. That would be a pretty amazing accomplishment!!

I have your Friday storm tracking toys all set to rock and roll…

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:31 am

Storms For Memorial Day Weekend

Good Thursday to one and all. We are dealing with a pretty nice weather day across the region, but storms are looming for Memorial Day Weekend. These storms look to have a connection to the tropics, with a system trying to develop in the Gulf of Mexico.

Before we get there, today is a nice one for much of the state. Highs are generally in the upper 70s and low 80s, but pockets of middle 80s are showing up. I’m watching southeastern Kentucky for enough of an increase in moisture to produce some afternoon scattered storms…

As far as your cookout plans for Memorial Day weekend, a lot hinges upon what develops in the Gulf, and where it ultimately winds up. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the setup…

Moisture from the Gulf will get drawn northward into Kentucky, leading to scattered showers and storms going up on Saturday. A weak front settles in and slows down over the weekend, allowing for a nice conveyor belt of moisture to set up. You can see this already showing up on the NAM through Saturday…

The GFS is finally picking up on the tropical system, but is still likely too far east with it. Still, the model shows a good influx of moisture into Kentucky, and keeps a slow-moving system through next week…

Given the amount of moisture in the atmosphere this weekend and next week, we will likely find ourselves back in the familiar ‘cloudburst’ setup. Depending on what happens with the Gulf system, we could be dealing with something a little more widespread.

This continues to be one heck of a wet pattern!

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Time posted: 2:04 am

A Tropical Connection For Memorial Day Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a nice little break in the stormy action for the next few days, but that doesn’t look to last into the big Memorial Day Weekend. A stalled front may team up with a possible tropical system in the Gulf to deliver wet weather across the bluegrass state.

Let’s focus on today then roll ahead. The morning starts with leftover showers and storms scooting away from eastern Kentucky…

Lower humidity levels move in this afternoon and evening, with temps running cooler than previous days. Highs should range from the upper 70s to low 80s for many.

We may actually hit the 50s by Thursday morning, with afternoon temps similar to today. Skies will stay partly sunny.

The unofficial kickoff to summer is Memorial Day weekend and everyone is hoping for nice weather. Pools open, backyards fill with the smell of burgers and dogs on the grill, and lakes are generally packed. None of that may be true this weekend as our pattern looks very active.

For a while, I’ve talked about the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is highlighting this region for potential development over the next few days…

As that system works across the Gulf, we will be dealing with a front slowing down across the Ohio valley, setting up a pipeline of tropical moisture from the Gulf into Kentucky. That would lead to rounds of showers and storms starting as early as Friday and continuing into the weekend. What happens with the Gulf system? That may get drawn northward and impact our weather…

Again, we don’t have to have a direct impact from the center of that system to get a lot of rain around here.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:56 am

Election Day Storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s Election Day in Kentucky and there’s a storm brewing. No, it has nothing to do with voting, but it does have everything to do with the skies above. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to rumble across the region.

The greatest concentration of storms will be across the central and eastern parts of the state. Just like the past week or so, there is a small threat for strong to locally severe storms…

Heavy rains may also fire up a few local high water issues before the day is finished.

Wednesday’s weather looks better as our front moves east. This brings a more pleasant brand of air for Wednesday and Thursday. Humidity levels and temps come down, with skies looking mainly bright.

Another system approaches the region from the northwest by the Memorial Day weekend. That will bring an increase in showers and storms, as we watch the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where something tropical is likely to develop and it may directly or indirectly influence our weather.

Watch how the models are very stormy and unsettled all the way through next week…

Canadian

GFS

The ICON Model doesn’t go out quite as far, but you get the same general theme with the potential tropical system and the ensuing storminess…

This amazingly wet year just keeps on keeping on!

Let’s get back to this Tuesday and do a little Election Day storm tracking…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a good one and take care.

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