Daily Archives: May 2, 2018

Time posted: 12:12 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a very windy and warm day across the bluegrass state, with humidity levels you can actually feel. This increase in humidity will touch off showers and storms in the coming days, with an increasing potential for that action to hang around into Kentucky Derby Day.

There is a slight chance for isolated stuff to pop today across the west and north…

A big severe weather outbreak is underway across the plains, so take the interactive radar on a little trip to track those storms. You can even pull up live storm chase cams.

Some of those storms will get into Kentucky on Thursday, but the main action stays west. The SPC has parts of the state in a Marginal Risk for severe weather…

The Marginal Risk area then gets a little deeper into our region for Kentucky Oaks Day…

I suspect a Slight Risk will be added to that as we inch closer.

The setup for Oaks Day and Derby Day finds a slow-moving front entering the bluegrass state. This is not a wall to wall rain type of a setup, but it’s one that can produce scattered showers and storms going into Oaks Day. That front then stalls on top of us, allowing for a wave of low pressure to develop along it. That’s a bad sign for the Run For The Roses. Showers and storms may linger through Derby Day. Here’s the NAM…

The GFS is looking very similar…

I will have the latest Derby Weekend update on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Make it a good one and take care.

3 Comments

Time posted: 2:20 am

Storms Set To Join The Party

Good Wednesday, everybody. Our warmest pattern of since last September rolls on, but some showers and storms are about ready to get in on the action.  As temps stay warm through the rest of the week, the boomers will increase as we inch closer to Kentucky Oaks Day and, perhaps, Derby Day.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Highs will range from 80-85 across much of the state as southwesterly winds begin to crank. These winds will bring an increase in humidity, leading to the potential for isolated showers and storms. The best chance is across the west and north…

A severe weather outbreak is likely today across the plains and Mississippi Valley, so take the radar for a trip out there and check out the live storm chase cams.

Thursday looks to be another very warm day around here as highs head back into the 80-85 degree range. A few showers and storms may develop across the west and central parts of the state…

 

Scattered showers and storms will then increase for Kentucky Oaks Day Friday. This isn’t going to be washout material, but some decent showers and storms will go up as a cold front moves in. The current trend in the modelling is to slow this front down Friday night into Derby Day.

That slower moving front could keep some showers and storms around for the big day. Here’s the GFS from Friday evening through Saturday night…

The new Canadian Model is now much more aggressive with the Derby Day storm chances…

I’ve been talking and talking about the potential slow movement of this front and the potential impact on Derby Day and the models are now trending in that direction. Sigh.

I may update things again today, so check back.

Have a good Wednesday and take care.

3 Comments