Daily Archives: May 3, 2018

Time posted: 12:21 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to track an increase in showers and storms as we get set for Kentucky Derby weekend. No, that doesn’t mean your Oaks Day or Derby Day will be washouts, but it does mean to have the ponchos handy. 🙂

Before we get there, a weakening band of showers and storms is working across the state this afternoon. We may also see a few additional storms fire up later today into the evening, especially in the west and north. That’s where there is a small risk for local severe storms…

Here are your radars to track the scattered storms…

Kentucky Oaks Day will feature a cold front moving in and slowing down. This will fire up a few showers and storms across the region and a few could be locally strong or severe…

Once again, the severe threat is fairly low. In between the storms, you will have some sunshine and temps that can spike deep into the upper 70s. Winds will also be gusty.

That same front hangs up on top of us into Kentucky Derby Saturday. That allows for some additional showers, and a few storms to develop. The best chance continues to be across the east and south…

Obviously, the area around Churchill Downs will have a much better chance at being dry that areas from Lexington and east or south. Keep your fingers crossed on that!

Another cold front then works in here late Sunday , bringing showers and strong storms…

Much cooler air then follows that up to begin next week.

Let’s get back to the weather we have out there today. Just because… Here are your storm tracking toys…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:10 am

Tracking An Increase In Storms

Good Thursday, folks. As we get closer and closer to Kentucky Derby Weekend, the threat for showers and thunderstorms continues to increase. This may wind up bringing some ugly weather to the state from late Oaks Day into Derby Day Saturday. Sigh.

The action actually gets started out there today, with a few showers and storms developing in the west and north. Some of these have a small chance of becoming severe, with the main severe threat well to our west. Here’s the outlook  from the Storm Prediction Center…

Your friendly radars will help you track all the action…

A cold front moves into the region for Oaks Day, bringing an increase in the amount of scattered showers and storms. It’s not going to be an all day rain, by any means, and some may not see a whole lot. Still, a few of the storms may be locally strong or severe…

The cold front responsible for the scattered storms then slows down on top of us Friday night into Derby Day. That allows for some additional showers and storms to develop.

Here’s the GFS…

The NAM…

The European has the ugliest Derby Day look…

Once that moves through, Sunday looks windy and warm with another front blowing in that night. More showers and storms should be noted into Monday.

I will have another update later today. Until then, here are some tracking tools…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

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