Daily Archives: May 4, 2018

Time posted: 12:22 pm

Heavy Rain On The Way

Happy Oaks Day, everyone. Scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the state, but the focus is on what comes in later tonight into Derby Day.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will target much of the state, and could even bring a local high water threat.

For more than a week now, we have talked about the potential for our front to slow down and allow a wave of low pressure to develop along it. That looks to be exactly what will happen, leading to very heavy rains developing.

Here’s a quick breakdown of what to expect:

  • Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon, but a line of storms may develop and move in during the evening.
  • The cold front slows down and stalls over top of the state later tonight, with the wave of low pressure developing and rolling on top of us.
  • Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms move in from southwest to northeast from late tonight through Derby Day.
  • Churchill Downs will be on the western edge of the rain shield, but could still get in on some soggy stuff for a while.
  • The heaviest rains should target areas from south-central Kentucky into the central and eastern parts of the state.
  • That shows up well on the latest model rain forecasts…

GFS

NAM

CANADIAN

Another round of thunderstorms will follow that up by later Sunday, with cool air moving in for Monday. Rounds of strong storms appear to be a good bet later next week.

I will have the latest on the Derby Day heavy rain threat coming up on WKYT-TV starting at 4, with updates through the evening.

I leave you with your Oaks Day tracking tools…

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Heavy Rain Threat For Derby Day

Good Friday, everyone. Kentucky Oaks Day is here and we are tracking scattered showers and storms across the state. This action is associated with a cold front dropping in from the west and northwest. That bad boy slows down, giving some the potential for heavy rains on Kentucky Derby Saturday.

Let’s start with our Oaks Day and roll through the weekend.

Scattered showers and storms will be common today, but this is NOT going to be a washout. A few of the storms may be on the strong side, especially in the north. The best chance for any strong storm may actually come this evening…

Locally heavy downpours will be possible in any shower or storm that goes up. With or without storms, winds are a player today. Gusts of 30mph+ will be possible. Highs today will be in the 70s for much of the state, but some low 80s may show up for areas getting more sun than anything else.

The front then slows down on top of the state tonight into Saturday. That will allow for a wave of low pressure to develop along the front and bring additional rain and some thunder back into the region. The models are impressed with this system, bringing some heavy rains across parts of the state.

Notice some hefty totals showing up across central and eastern Kentucky…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

The GFS has made a big jump compared to earlier runs…

Notice how most of the runs have the Louisville area between the heavier rains to the south, and not much to the north. That’s a fine line we are walking for the Derby City on Derby Day.

Another cold front drops in late Sunday with gusty winds and a few strong thunderstorms. That looks to be the first of severe thunderstorm makers taking shape for the next week…

I will have another update later today. Until then, I have you all set to track today’s action…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Oaks Day and take care.

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