Daily Archives: July 16, 2018

Time posted: 1:23 am

Our Active Pattern Turns Much Cooler

Good Monday, folks. Our week is kicking off with showers and thunderstorms rolling across the state, as our overall pattern begins to skew cooler than normal. If you’re a regular reader of KWC, you know I’ve been hitting this change pretty hard over the past month or so. Now, it’s time for Mother Nature to deliver the goods. 🙂

Speaking of the goods, I have a little winter talk coming up.

Today’s showers and thunderstorms will have a lot of moisture to work with, so locally heavy rains are a good bet. One or two storms may also be on the strong side. Let’s get the trackers out of the way…

The actual front sweeps through here later Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Temps  and humidity levels will tank behind the boundary for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Check out the mid-week highs…

Another system drops in by later Thursday into Friday, and should hang around through the weekend. This is likely an anomalous cutoff low pressure spinning right on top of us…

The end result is unsettled and wet weather…

Temps will continue to run below normal during this time, with a few days coming in WELL below normal.

As far as your winter talk is concerned, I’ve been sharing many of the seasonal models all singing a similar tune with a developing weak El Nino. I’ve illustrated how the placement of the warmest waters are vitally important as to what kind of winter we get around here. With the likelihood of the warmest anomalies being located in region 3.4 of the equatorial Pacific, it enhances the potential for a trough to develop across the eastern part of the country.

A new seasonal model is in and shows that scenario happening. Here’s the Canadian month by month breakdown from December through March…

That’s a good look for winter weather lovers across Kentucky and for much of the country. That also matches up reasonably well with some of the other seasonal models I’ve been showing.

Have a great day and take care.

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