Daily Archives: August 29, 2018

Time posted: 1:48 am

Storms On The Increase

Good Wednesday, everyone. We are officially on the downhill slide toward the Labor Day Weekend and we are doing so with an increase in showers and storms. This action is along and ahead of a cold front sweeping into the region from the northwest.

Will the showers and storms hang around into the holiday weekend? That’s a possibility and one I will touch on in a bit. I will also take a look deeper into fall, courtesy of the European Model.

Let’s begin with where we are today and roll forward.

Showers and storms increase across the state, especially this afternoon and evening. A few of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…

The front slows down on top of the region for Thursday and is likely to hang around through the upcoming Labor Day weekend. The end result would be for, at least, scattered storms around on a daily basis…

We will need to watch for the potential for too much rain to fall in some areas, leading to a local high water threat.

You notice a lot of action rolling across the Caribbean toward Florida and into the Gulf on the above animation. Neither the GFS or Canadian Models develop a full blown tropical system out of that mess, but the European Model has a different attitude.

Notice the Labor Day system rolling into south Florida…

That system crosses Florida and continues to develop into the Gulf and heads toward Louisiana a few days later…

It’s interesting to note that the European also has a hurricane heading toward Hawaii at the same time. We shall see how all that plays out over the next week or so.

In my last post, I showed how the CFS Seasonal Model was showing a cooler change really kicking in for the middle of September and carrying us into the beginning of October. The European is going in that direction too. Here’s the look for a 10 day period in the middle of September…

Here we have the opening 10 days of October…

The model gets there by developing some pretty anomalous troughs for so early in the fall season…

That’s a pretty interesting look that, if true, would argue for an early season frost threat.

Let’s get back to where we are today. I have your storm tracking toys for this Wednesday…

Have a good one and take care.

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