Daily Archives: September 8, 2018

Time posted: 3:10 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to increase as the ghost of Gordon rolls across the Ohio Valley. This will cause high water issues to develop for some areas through Sunday night, with the focus trying to shift farther south and east into the bluegrass state.

I’m also going to focus on Florence in this blowout post, but let’s start with our current setp.

Flash Flood Watches continue to be piecemealed together (which I’m not a fan of because it gives a false sense of security). The NWS offices keep adding more and more counties farther south and east, but this thing need to keep going deeper into the state…

The main heavy rain shield associated with Gordon is rolling east this afternoon and evening across the western and northern parts of the state. As the center of circulation passes through, it brings a slow-moving cold front across the state, with another round of torrential rains and storms developing along and ahead of it.

We continue to see the models pointing the way toward a second area of flood potential developing across central and eastern Kentucky tonight into Sunday. The morning run of the HRRR goes through Sunday night ands shows what I’m concerned with…

That has support from the NAM and HI-Res NAM…

The Canadian Models are actually farther south with the main heavy rain shield and also develop the secondary heavy rain batch…

At this point, there is zero model support for NOT having a Flash Flood Watch for most of the region through Sunday night.

The showers and storms will hang tough into Monday across the central and east as temps are actually pretty cool.

Some Florence talk after your tropical rain trackers…

Florence is going to grow into a Major Hurricane and head toward the Carolinas by the middle and end of next week. Here’s the latest specifics and track from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

We still see the models with a very threatening look for the east coast. Some of them continue to show this system impacting our weather by next weekend.

The European Model…

The Euro now stalls that low across the Mid-Atlantic states for several days and waits on a fall trough to dig in and pick it up by day 10…

The Canadian Model brings the remnant low right into our region…

The GFS can’t figure out if it wants to bring this onshore or not, so it keeps it meandering around the east coast before a fall trough pushes it away…

Here’s the deal with Florence… If this storm gets inland into the Appalachian Mountains, it could turn into a major flood maker.

I may offer up another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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