Daily Archives: September 8, 2018

Time posted: 3:10 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to increase as the ghost of Gordon rolls across the Ohio Valley. This will cause high water issues to develop for some areas through Sunday night, with the focus trying to shift farther south and east into the bluegrass state.

I’m also going to focus on Florence in this blowout post, but let’s start with our current setp.

Flash Flood Watches continue to be piecemealed together (which I’m not a fan of because it gives a false sense of security). The NWS offices keep adding more and more counties farther south and east, but this thing need to keep going deeper into the state…

The main heavy rain shield associated with Gordon is rolling east this afternoon and evening across the western and northern parts of the state. As the center of circulation passes through, it brings a slow-moving cold front across the state, with another round of torrential rains and storms developing along and ahead of it.

We continue to see the models pointing the way toward a second area of flood potential developing across central and eastern Kentucky tonight into Sunday. The morning run of the HRRR goes through Sunday night ands shows what I’m concerned with…

That has support from the NAM and HI-Res NAM…

The Canadian Models are actually farther south with the main heavy rain shield and also develop the secondary heavy rain batch…

At this point, there is zero model support for NOT having a Flash Flood Watch for most of the region through Sunday night.

The showers and storms will hang tough into Monday across the central and east as temps are actually pretty cool.

Some Florence talk after your tropical rain trackers…

Florence is going to grow into a Major Hurricane and head toward the Carolinas by the middle and end of next week. Here’s the latest specifics and track from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

We still see the models with a very threatening look for the east coast. Some of them continue to show this system impacting our weather by next weekend.

The European Model…

The Euro now stalls that low across the Mid-Atlantic states for several days and waits on a fall trough to dig in and pick it up by day 10…

The Canadian Model brings the remnant low right into our region…

The GFS can’t figure out if it wants to bring this onshore or not, so it keeps it meandering around the east coast before a fall trough pushes it away…

Here’s the deal with Florence… If this storm gets inland into the Appalachian Mountains, it could turn into a major flood maker.

I may offer up another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:29 am

Tracking The Tropical Rains

Good Saturday to one and all. A stalled front is teaming with the remnants of Gordon to produce rounds of showers and storms this weekend. The tropical atmosphere means many areas will pick up a lot of rain through Monday, potentially leading to, at least, local high water issues.

Today will feature scattered showers and storms in the east and southeast, with more widespread action in the west and north. Any one area can experience some high water issues, but the greatest risk will be closer to the track of the ghost of Gordon.

Here are the tracking tools for the day…

The showers and storms will continue to increase from west to east tonight and into Sunday. This happens the remnant low from Gordon works through the lower Ohio Valley then wraps up as it lifts to the north. That will also drag a cold front slowly across the state. That front will ignite widespread showers and storms and can cause high water issues across central and eastern Kentucky into early Monday. A few of the storms may even be strong.

Monday as a chance to be pretty cool under clouds and showers. Temps may not get out of the 60s in some areas.

Temps rebound with the threat for more showers and storms into the middle and end of next week. That’s when the focus shifts to the east coast.

Florence is going to track toward the east coast and could be a major Hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas by the middle of next week…

cone graphic

There’s nothing good that can come from the setup.

The models are all over the east coast hit, with some of them taking this far enough inland to influence our weather. The European Model is showing this potential…

The GFS is also a Carolina hit, but it keeps it going up the east coast then back out to sea…

The Canadian is the farthest south and farthest west with the inland track…

It doesn’t end with Florence. Look at the additional action showing up…

Hyper-Active!

I will have updates later today, so check back in. Make it a good one and take care.

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