Daily Archives: September 9, 2018

Time posted: 4:50 pm

Flooding Update

Good afternoon, everyone. An amazing amount of rain continues to fall across the bluegrass state, leading to significant flooding issues. Several areas have picked up more than 6″ of rain this weekend and more is falling. Tropical moisture and a slow-moving front are a force to be reckoned with and none of this should come as a surprise to those of you reading the blog for the past week.

For the record… the center of what’s left of Gordon is passing tight on top of Kentucky…

The official forecast from the NHC for this was to always take it to near Chicago. Several models did so, too, but those are the ones I’ve talked about having big time convective feedback issues. Unfortunately, the weather community is increasingly becoming an echo chamber where everyone is forced to deliver the same¬†message. Not here! ūüėČ

The heaviest rain continues to fall across central and eastern Kentucky, with an uptick in thunderstorm action taking place. Some areas will pick up another 1″-3″ of rain through tonight and a few of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Still, it’s the significant flash flood threat stealing the show.

Your afternoon trackers…

Monday is a very cool day with many areas staying in the 60s. Low clouds will hang tough with a few showers around in the east and southeast.

Scattered showers and storms return for the middle and end of the week as we focus on Florence. This hurricane is going to be a powerful one that heads toward the Carolinas. This may very well be a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane…

cone graphic

The spaghetti plots from the various hurricane models are in line with that forecast…

The European Model continues to be consistent with a NC hit…

The model continues to stall this system in the Appalachian Mountains and Mid-Atlantic, bringing a devastating flood to many, with eastern Kentucky getting in on some of the action…

The new version of the GFS is similar to what the European is showing…

The soon to be replaced GFS is steal and wandering storm swept out to see by a deep trough…

The Canadian Model is¬†a cross between the old GFS and the European Model…

The NAVY brings this system very far west toward our region…

At this point, I’m not going to bet against. at least, some impact on our weather from Florence. Stay tuned!

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:54 am

Another Day Of Tropical Rains

Good Sunday, folks. Rounds of tropical rain producing showers and thunderstorms continue to work across central and eastern Kentucky today. This action is putting down a ton of rain, leading to the potential for additional high water issues. As we head into the new week, the focus is on Florence and what, if any, impact it could have on our weather.

Today’s showers and storms come at us in waves, with the heaviest rains falling across the eastern half of the state. These torrential rains may cause quick rises on area creeks and streams, leading to additional flash flooding issues. The ground has been worked over by record rains of the past few days, so some significant flooding¬†problems may develop.

In addition to the high water threat, a few strong storms may also flare up. We will have to watch to see if we can get a few storms to spin across the eastern half of the state. A brief tornado is possible.

Here are your tracking tools for the day…

Our slow-moving front continues to press across eastern Kentucky into Monday, leading to additional showers and a few storms. Heavy rains may continue to fall in the southeast, especially early in the day. High temps across the state will generally range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see the chance for scattered showers and storms around as temps head back to seasonal levels. We may get a little above normal again by the second half of the week as Hurricane Florence nears the east coast.

This storm will be a monster and may very well head into the Carolinas during this time. Here’s the latest specifics and track from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

The GFS continues to take this monster to the east coast, but doesn’t really know what to do with it, stalling it out for days on end…

The Canadian takes our intense hurricane into the Carolinas, with the remnants making it all the way into Kentucky…

The European is a big Carolina hit…

That system then stalls in the Mid-Atlantic states, throwing¬†a bit of moisture into our region…

I will have another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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