Daily Archives: September 12, 2018

Time posted: 7:26 pm

Updating The Florence Forecast

Good evening, folks. Hurricane Florence has weakened some today, but is still a major hurricane on a collision course with the Carolinas. The storm will likely have a direct impact on our weather late this weekend into early next week.

This storm has a chance at a double landfall… One south of Wilmington, NC, with the other in South Carolina. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast reflects this possibility…

cone graphic

The various hurricane models are in very good agreement with the forecast track of the storm into the Carolinas and then all the way into Kentucky by early next week…

The various members of the GFS Ensembles share a similar line of thinking…

The latest GFS is very similar to the tracks shown above, bringing rain and wind into Kentucky Sunday and Monday…

That clearly brings the remnant low right on top of the state.

The European Model has corrected itself from last night’s extreme solution that took this system south of Savannah. The model now shows the double landfall scenario. Here’s the North Carolina hit…

Followed by the South Carolina hit…

From there, the Euro takes this system across central and eastern Kentucky…

 

Some thoughts on how all this may play out:

  • Scattered showers and storms will go up over the next few days, with an increase Friday and Saturday. Tropical downpours will be possible.
  •  The remnants of Florence begin throwing clouds our way by late Saturday into early Sunday.
  • The first rains from this storm should arrive late Sunday and continue through Monday. Showers and storms will be common across central and eastern Kentucky. Heavy rainfall may cause a few issues.
  • Unlike Gordon, this will likely produce gusty winds across our part of the world.
  • None of this is set in stone. 🙂

I will have another update later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:53 am

It’s All About Hurricane Florence

Good Wednesday, everybody. The weather across our region continues to be pretty darn nice for this time of year. As we roll through the rest of the week and into the weekend, it’s all about Hurricane Florence. What happens with this storm after landfall is the main driver in our weather this weekend into next week.

Before we get to Florence, let’s talk a little bit about the next few days. Highs today range from the mid and upper 70s for much of central and eastern Kentucky to the low 80s west. Clouds are still going to be awfully stubborn for several areas.

Temps should hit the low 80s for Thursday into Friday with the threat for a storm or two going up. The best risk will be on Friday, with a few heavier downpours possible.

From there, what happens to our weather is directly associated with Hurricane Florence. Let’s get a check on the latest vitals with this powerful storm…

cone graphic

The hurricane models continue to show a worst case scenario for North and South Carolina, a slow-moving powerful storm…

Several members continue to bring the remnants toward our region and the GFS Ensembles are similar…

The modelling trend of late continues to take this slow-moving monster toward North Carolina, stall it, then drop it southwest into South Carolina. That would be absolutely crushing to much of both states. After milling around for a day the system then works northwest toward our region. Watch how the GFS does all that, then actually loops the remnant low back into the deep south…

This run of the GFS would bring very gusty winds our way, along with another round of torrential rains from late Sunday through Tuesday…

The European Model is absolutely wild with what it does with Florence. It takes it onshore near Wilmington, NC…

It then comes back out over the water and works southwest along the South Carolina and makes landfall in GEORGIA…

The Georgia coast is one of the most difficult places for any storm to hit because it’s tucked back in a curve along the coast. It doesn’t get direct hits very often, especially from a storm coming from the northeast. I would find this solution to be, if it verifies, a once in a lifetime event.

From there, the storm then heads north toward our region early next week…

As you can see, there are several solutions still on the table with this storm. It may not be for a few more days until I can get a better handle on what kind of impact this will have on our weather.

I will throw you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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