Monthly Archives: October 2018

Time posted: 2:31 am

Heavy Rain and High Winds Halloween Through Friday

Good Monday, everybody. Here’s hoping this update of the blog finds each of you doing just fine and dandy. Halloween is just a few days away and things continue to look pretty darn ugly as a big storm system gets ready to dish out high winds and heavy rain for trick-or-treaters.

I would imagine we may see some cities moving trick-or-treat hours up a night to be on the safe side, especially in the central and west.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • A cold front works into the region and slows down on Halloween.
  • That allows for an area of low pressure to develop along the boundary and roll right on top of us.
  • Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms rumble across the state.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-4″ are likely for Wednesday and Thursday, with local amounts up to 6″ possible.
  • Flooding and flash flooding issues may develop during this time.
  • High winds will be a big player, especially Wednesday night and Thursday. Gusts may exceed 50mph.
  • Along and east of the track of the low, a few strong to severe storms are possible. The best chance of that may wind up across the central and east.

Here’s a look at the area I’m highlighting for the best chance for high water issues…

The European Model continues to show excessive rains that would cause flooding issues…

The new GFS is showing a similar area of concern…

Here’s the evolution of that system on the GFS…

The Canadian is similar, but has a stronger second system Friday night and Saturday…

I will hook you up with updates later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:55 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Winds are cranking this afternoon as a small system zips across the Ohio Valley. That is also producing a few showers and storms. The main show arrives Halloween into Thursday as a strong low pressure works through our region.

Wind gusts this afternoon top out from 40-50mph at times. Hold on to those Halloween decorations. 🙂 A few showers and isolated storms are also on the move…

Our next system targets Kentucky on Halloween and into Thursday. This is a strong low pressure wrapping up and moving across the Ohio Valley. How strong this system is will be the determining factor on exactly how much rain and wind it can produce. We may also be looking at a few strong or severe storms east of the track of the low.

The European Model continues to be consistent with a strong system…

Rain totals from this run continue to be impressive…

Obviously, that would be enough to produce flooding issues. The Euro continues to advertise 50mph+ winds.

A weaker system follows that up by Friday night and Saturday…

The GFS isn’t quite as strong as the European, but still has a healthy storm…

Rainfall from the GFS is a bit lighter, but more spread out in terms of coverage…

Don’t be surprised if we don’t see a similar system moving in late next weekend or into early the following week. This jet stream is supercharged and will likely give us additional big precipitation and wind makers through November. Right now, I don’t see any reason to say this doesn’t continue into winter. My Bold Prediction may be similar to one I put our a few years ago. I hit on 4 straight Bold Calls, so it’s up to you to figure out which one I’m talking about. 😉

I may throw you another update this evening. Enjoy and take care.

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Time posted: 3:08 am

Tracking High Winds and A Monster Of A Halloween Storm

Good Sunday, everyone. High winds are coming at us today as a potent little system crosses the Ohio Valley. The system will be a much bigger deal as it moves in here for Halloween and the first day or two of November. That one will bring heavy rain, thunderstorms and high winds with cold air to follow.

Let’s start with today’s system. Low pressure is zipping across the Ohio Valley, bringing high winds and a few showers and storms. The winds are the main factor and may gusty from 40-50mph at times. This would be enough to cause some power hits and could cause some tree damage. There is also a local strong to severe storms threat across the north and east…

Here’s regional radar to track the gusty showers and storms…

Monday and Tuesday look really good, but that goes downhill very quickly on Halloween. A major storm system will wrap up and move right on top of Kentucky and the Ohio Valley through Thursday and Friday. This storm will be intense and bring the potential for flooding rains, strong thunderstorms and high winds. The European Model shows our monster storm…

Excessive rains can easily cause flooding and flash flooding issues…

The European is consistently showing wind gusts of 50-60mph along and east of the track of the low. Wow! We may also see strong to severe storms in in some of the same areas east of the low.

The GFS is now fully on board…

The Canadian concurs…

Much colder air wraps in behind this powerful storm and has the chance to throw a flake into the region before all is said and done.

Still, the Wednesday-Thursday storm may be a headline maker in our region. I will have updates later today.

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 3:11 pm

A Lot Of Wind and Rain Ahead

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by to update the big wind makers and heavy rains on the way in the coming days. Two systems are going to bring significant winds our way and one of them may also bring a high water threat.

Before we get to those, northwesterly winds continue to touch off showers and drizzle across areas of central and, especially, eastern Kentucky. Here’s your regional radar…

The system moving in on Sunday is going to be a big time wind maker for the Ohio Valley, including Kentucky. Gusts of 40-50mph are possible and that could lead to some power hits and trees down. This is a small, but potent, system zipping through here…

Afternoon showers will develop for much of central and eastern Kentucky.

Our next system continues to look like a major storm rolling right on top of our region Halloween Wednesday into the first day of November on Thursday. The European Model is really blowing this thing up…

Heavy rains are likely during this time, but how much will depend on how strong the system is and how slow it moves. This run of the European shows flooding rains…

The model is also suggesting wind gusts of greater than 40-50mph as a possibility.

The European Model is similar, but a little faster with the low moving through here. It also sees a weak system diving in behind that…

Still, the Canadian is showing rainfall numbers approaching 5″ for some areas…

As is usually the case, the GFS is the weakest and most progressive of all the models…

That said, even the GFS is seeing 2″-4″ rains in our region.

I may send out another update this evening. If not, my late night update will have all the latest on this super active setup.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:51 am

October Going Out On A Busy Note

Good Saturday, everyone. We have another raw day in store for many areas, with a lot more action on the way as this busy fall pattern will not let up. This busy setup includes a lot of wind for Sunday and another potent storm system waiting in the wings for Halloween. After that, there’s a winter look to the setup.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Northwesterly winds will keep clouds, showers, drizzle and chilly temps across much of the central and eastern parts of the state. Farther west, the day winds up being pretty nice with temps deep into the upper 50s. The east may struggle to get out of the mid and upper 40s.

Here’s regional radar to track the northwesterly flow showers…

A month from now, we would be talking about snow showers and squalls working in on this same flow.

Sunday looks very windy with gusts that can reach 40mph at times. The day starts with some sun ahead of a cold front dropping in late afternoon and evening. That will bring some gusty showers and a storm with it, especially across the north and east. Temps will also spike ahead of the drops.

Monday looks good with upper 30s to start and upper 50s to low 60s to end.

The next system rolls in by Halloween and brings wind, rain and a few thunderstorms. This will be followed up by much colder air and the potential for another system by the weekend.

Here are the views from the various computer models….

New version of the GFS…

GFS

Canadian

Here’s the European with the Halloween-Thursday system…

Here’s how it follows it up for late Friday through Saturday…

I will hook you up with another update later today. Have a good one and take care.

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