Monthly Archives: October 2018

Time posted: 2:16 am

High Winds and Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Tuesday, folks. Windy weather is moving in today and that’s a sign of things to come. A big storm system rolls into the region on Halloween and will carry us through the first day or two of November. Some wicked weather will accompany this bad boy into town

Let’s begin with today and the trick-or-treating forecast for those cities and towns that moved it up a day because of the weather. Things look mild and windy, but dry. Highs today may close in on 70 for some areas, but winds will really pick up by the evening. Gusts of 30mph may be noted.

In the overall scheme of things, I have no changes to my thoughts on hot this big storm plays out for Halloween and Thursday. Heavy rain and high winds are likely for much of the region and this may cause some issues. Let’s start things out with the heavy rain potential. A general 2″-4″ of rain will fall across western and central Kentucky, with locally higher amounts. Those numbers drop off dramatically across the southeastern part of the state.

My flood threat map hasn’t changed…

The various forecast models are similar to my line of thinking in where the heaviest rains fall…

Winds are another big player as our storm system rolls from south to north across the commonwealth. Those gusts on Halloween can top out around 40mph at times, with Thursday being the prime time for high winds. Gusts Thursday into Thursday night may reach 50mph or higher at times.

Watch how this storm wraps up across our region and pulls a secondary low in behind it for late Friday and early Saturday…

Canadian

GFS

That second system would bring chilly showers back in here to start the weekend.

As that system moves away, another one quickly follows it up by late Sunday into early next week. This one pulls even colder air behind it, with another system following that up a few days later…

You will notice some blues showing up on that animation, indicating some winter potential. This potential has been showing up at times on the models. They often jump the gun on such setups, but we are getting into a more favorable setup for them to verify.

I will have other updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

8 Comments

Time posted: 6:32 pm

Latest Thoughts On The Big Storm Ahead

Good evening, folks. Our monster of a storm continues to take shape for Halloween through Friday. This is a storm that can bring significant flooding issues, high winds and strong to severe storms. Overall, this continues to look like one heck of a storm.

My thoughts since have pretty much been the same since the middle of last week and I really see no reasons to change anything. I’m very concerned about the flood and flash flood potential as significant rains fall. This still looks like a general 1″-4″ rain, with local amounts up to 6″ possible. That would be more than enough to cause flash flooding and general flooding.

My at risk area hasn’t changed…

Low pressure is likely to develop and roll form south to north across the state, deepening along the way. That deepening may produce high winds and a few strong or severe storms. Winds gusts of 40mph will be possible on Halloween, with gusts of 50mph or greater possible Thursday into Thursday night. That’s when the actual low passes through.

Along and ahead of the track of that low, a few severe storms may develop.

The European Model has a potent storm strengthening right on top of Kentucky…

That track would bring a ton of rain, high winds and a few strong storms to the region. The rain forecast from the Euro is a little tighter with the gradient…

The GFS is very similar, but a little farther east…

The wind threat continues to increase. Gusts on Halloween are greater than 40mph on the European…

The Euro then takes winds to 50mph or greater in some areas Thursday into Thursday night…

Yowza!!

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 2:31 am

Heavy Rain and High Winds Halloween Through Friday

Good Monday, everybody. Here’s hoping this update of the blog finds each of you doing just fine and dandy. Halloween is just a few days away and things continue to look pretty darn ugly as a big storm system gets ready to dish out high winds and heavy rain for trick-or-treaters.

I would imagine we may see some cities moving trick-or-treat hours up a night to be on the safe side, especially in the central and west.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • A cold front works into the region and slows down on Halloween.
  • That allows for an area of low pressure to develop along the boundary and roll right on top of us.
  • Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms rumble across the state.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-4″ are likely for Wednesday and Thursday, with local amounts up to 6″ possible.
  • Flooding and flash flooding issues may develop during this time.
  • High winds will be a big player, especially Wednesday night and Thursday. Gusts may exceed 50mph.
  • Along and east of the track of the low, a few strong to severe storms are possible. The best chance of that may wind up across the central and east.

Here’s a look at the area I’m highlighting for the best chance for high water issues…

The European Model continues to show excessive rains that would cause flooding issues…

The new GFS is showing a similar area of concern…

Here’s the evolution of that system on the GFS…

The Canadian is similar, but has a stronger second system Friday night and Saturday…

I will hook you up with updates later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

20 Comments