Daily Archives: October 17, 2018

Time posted: 2:20 am

Green Thumb ALERT

Good Wednesday, everyone. Another weak front is crossing the state today, bringing even colder air from the northwest. This will give us our first widespread frost of the season into Thursday morning, with even colder air lurking for later this weekend and next week.

We will break all that down and take a look at the next 6 weeks worth of interesting weather on the long range European Model.

Before we get to all that, let’s talk about the fall chill that’s in the air. A weak cold front is dropping in from the north today and is bringing even colder temps with it. Readings by Thursday morning will drop to the freezing mark in many areas, with a few spots going below 32 degrees. That means frost is likely…

Frost may be with us again Friday morning…

By Friday afternoon and evening, another rain maker moves into the region from the southwest. This will keep rains going into, at least, the first part of Saturday. Some wraparound moisture may come into parts of the state Saturday night…

A few snowflakes may get awfully close to the bluegrass state with the northwest flow. That should bring even colder air in here for Sunday and Monday with freezing temps a good bet.

I continue to point toward the final week of October for the potential for a big amplification across the eastern part of the country. The Ensembles have been suggesting this for a while and the operational models are starting to catch on…

The longer range European Ensembles are out and take us from now through November 29th. The model shows a colder than normal pattern during this time, but it keeps our region in a very active pattern. That would mean a lot more rain and increasing snow chances.

Ensembles rainfall…

Control run…

Ensembles snow…

The control run builds an early season glacier…

Obviously, we take any of those models with a grain of salt, but the overall setup makes sense. Our current pattern is now colder than normal and wetter than normal and that’s exactly what the model is showing. How much of that equates to snow across the country remains to be seen. But, snow cover across Canada is way above normal right now and that’s usually a harbinger of a colder and snowier winter in our part of the world.

Have a great day and take care.

 

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