Daily Archives: October 22, 2018

Time posted: 3:41 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gorgeous fall day in the bluegrass state with more nice weather through the middle of the week. This nice stuff comes with even chillier temps. By the end of the week, the pattern gets back to active with a DEEP trough being carved out across our region. That will spawn a couple of big storm systems.

The pattern was always going to throw a big trough our way for the end of October, but the remnants of Category 5 Pacific Hurricane Willa ups the ante on the trough.

Check out all energy rotating through the deep trough…

The Canadian continues to be the most phased with the surface system, but not as much as last night’s run. Notice how it still spits out a monster storm with another system developing as energy dives in behind it from the northwest…

The European Model takes this massive¬†system up the east coast from late Thursday through early Saturday…

This also shows the next system quickly diving in from the northwest by late weekend into early next week…

The GFS continues to show its progressive bias with systems across the south and east, but it’s trying to get to where it needs to be. It also shows the system diving in behind the main storm…

For us, all of this means gusty winds, chilly temps and rounds of rain. There’s an outside chance for a flake with the second system moving in late weekend and early next week.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

1 Comment

Time posted: 2:51 am

Tracking A Potential Big Storm System

Good Monday to one and all. Since our pattern flipped on a dime almost 2 weeks ago, temperatures have been running much colder than normal. That pattern shows little sign of breaking as we head into another cold week. Things do get busy by the weekend as that major amplification of the jet stream takes place. You know… That thing I’ve been pointing toward for well over a week now. ūüėČ

Before we get to the weekend setup, let’s talk about the chill that leads us into that. Temps stay solidly below normal the next few days, then another¬† cold shot moves in for the middle of the week…

For more than a week now, I’ve been trying to drive home the fact I was picking up on a healthy signal for a major amplification to the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. Well that setup is on the way and it’s going to develop a big storm system.

What’s upping the ante on this setup is the likelihood of another Pacific hurricane getting into the mix. Powerful Hurricane Willa will come ashore along the Mexico border on Tuesday, then rapidly head toward Texas…

cone graphic

That energy will then merge with additional energy diving in from the northwest.¬† How much phasing and the timing of these phases remains to be seen, but some wild weather is on the table for the eastern part of the country. The Canadian has the wildest solution at the moment. Watch this fully phased upper level system on the current run…

That produces a MONSTER¬†winter storm…

Though it does keep the winter weather mainly north and east of us… Wow.

The European Model isn’t quite as extreme, but it’s close. It shows the eastern winter storm, but isn’t as phased as the Canadian…

Taken verbatim, both the Canadian and European Models are show a crushing early seasons snowstorm from the Appalachian mountains to our east into the northeastern states.

As far as the GFS is concerned, the model bias is to ALWAYS be too far south and east with cold season storms. That’s what’s happening with the latest run, but if you correct it west, you get something similar to the Euro and Canadian…

For Kentucky, this setup likely produces rain, wind and cold. Can we get a little something more out of that setup? Perhaps. It’s all about the phasing.

I will have an update or two coming later today, so check back.

Have a great Monday and take care.

7 Comments