Daily Archives: October 29, 2018

Time posted: 6:32 pm

Latest Thoughts On The Big Storm Ahead

Good evening, folks. Our monster of a storm continues to take shape for Halloween through Friday. This is a storm that can bring significant flooding issues, high winds and strong to severe storms. Overall, this continues to look like one heck of a storm.

My thoughts since have pretty much been the same since the middle of last week and I really see no reasons to change anything. I’m very concerned about the flood and flash flood potential as significant rains fall. This still looks like a general 1″-4″ rain, with local amounts up to 6″ possible. That would be more than enough to cause flash flooding and general flooding.

My at risk area hasn’t changed…

Low pressure is likely to develop and roll form south to north across the state, deepening along the way. That deepening may produce high winds and a few strong or severe storms. Winds gusts of 40mph will be possible on Halloween, with gusts of 50mph or greater possible Thursday into Thursday night. That’s when the actual low passes through.

Along and ahead of the track of that low, a few severe storms may develop.

The European Model has a potent storm strengthening right on top of Kentucky…

That track would bring a ton of rain, high winds and a few strong storms to the region. The rain forecast from the Euro is a little tighter with the gradient…

The GFS is very similar, but a little farther east…

The wind threat continues to increase. Gusts on Halloween are greater than 40mph on the European…

The Euro then takes winds to 50mph or greater in some areas Thursday into Thursday night…

Yowza!!

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:31 am

Heavy Rain and High Winds Halloween Through Friday

Good Monday, everybody. Here’s hoping this update of the blog finds each of you doing just fine and dandy. Halloween is just a few days away and things continue to look pretty darn ugly as a big storm system gets ready to dish out high winds and heavy rain for trick-or-treaters.

I would imagine we may see some cities moving trick-or-treat hours up a night to be on the safe side, especially in the central and west.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • A cold front works into the region and slows down on Halloween.
  • That allows for an area of low pressure to develop along the boundary and roll right on top of us.
  • Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms rumble across the state.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-4″ are likely for Wednesday and Thursday, with local amounts up to 6″ possible.
  • Flooding and flash flooding issues may develop during this time.
  • High winds will be a big player, especially Wednesday night and Thursday. Gusts may exceed 50mph.
  • Along and east of the track of the low, a few strong to severe storms are possible. The best chance of that may wind up across the central and east.

Here’s a look at the area I’m highlighting for the best chance for high water issues…

The European Model continues to show excessive rains that would cause flooding issues…

The new GFS is showing a similar area of concern…

Here’s the evolution of that system on the GFS…

The Canadian is similar, but has a stronger second system Friday night and Saturday…

I will hook you up with updates later today so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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