Daily Archives: October 30, 2018

Time posted: 7:27 pm

Flood Watches Go Up

Good evening, everyone. We continue to track a big storm system toward the region as It rolls our way for late Halloween and Thursday. This will bring heavy rain and high winds to the region, with the greatest threat for the worst of the weather across the west and central.

A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the region from Halloween through Friday morning. Here’s a look…

That matches up well with the map I first put out several days ago…

The European Model continues to spit out some very concerning totals. The latest run hits the 7″ mark across parts of east-central Kentucky…

Flooding and flash flooding issues are both possible across the highlighted areas. Please stay alert to rising water worries.

Winds are also a major player over the next few days. Gusts may reach 40mph on Halloween with gusts of 50mph or greater possible Thursday into Thursday night.

Much colder air sweeps in behind this system for Friday with another system rounding the bend of the deep trough on top of us. That keeps chilly showers going through the day and into Saturday morning…

That moves away very quickly, with another shower maker moving into the western half of the state as early as late Saturday. Another powerhouse of a storm system by Tuesday and Wednesday…

That could be another major rain, storm and wind maker for our region. Behind that? The bottom falls out…

The first true winter signals are showing up as we get deeper into November.

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

High Winds and Heavy Rain On The Way

Good Tuesday, folks. Windy weather is moving in today and that’s a sign of things to come. A big storm system rolls into the region on Halloween and will carry us through the first day or two of November. Some wicked weather will accompany this bad boy into town

Let’s begin with today and the trick-or-treating forecast for those cities and towns that moved it up a day because of the weather. Things look mild and windy, but dry. Highs today may close in on 70 for some areas, but winds will really pick up by the evening. Gusts of 30mph may be noted.

In the overall scheme of things, I have no changes to my thoughts on hot this big storm plays out for Halloween and Thursday. Heavy rain and high winds are likely for much of the region and this may cause some issues. Let’s start things out with the heavy rain potential. A general 2″-4″ of rain will fall across western and central Kentucky, with locally higher amounts. Those numbers drop off dramatically across the southeastern part of the state.

My flood threat map hasn’t changed…

The various forecast models are similar to my line of thinking in where the heaviest rains fall…

Winds are another big player as our storm system rolls from south to north across the commonwealth. Those gusts on Halloween can top out around 40mph at times, with Thursday being the prime time for high winds. Gusts Thursday into Thursday night may reach 50mph or higher at times.

Watch how this storm wraps up across our region and pulls a secondary low in behind it for late Friday and early Saturday…

Canadian

GFS

That second system would bring chilly showers back in here to start the weekend.

As that system moves away, another one quickly follows it up by late Sunday into early next week. This one pulls even colder air behind it, with another system following that up a few days later…

You will notice some blues showing up on that animation, indicating some winter potential. This potential has been showing up at times on the models. They often jump the gun on such setups, but we are getting into a more favorable setup for them to verify.

I will have other updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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