Daily Archives: October 31, 2018

Time posted: 7:41 pm

Wicked Halloween Weather Update

Happy Halloween, folks. Rain and thunderstorms have engulfed much of the region on this big day as our big storm system rolls into the region. The target areas for the worst of the weather continue to be western, northern and parts of central Kentucky.

Our Flood Watch rolls on, but I don’t agree with the trimming of the counties in the Lexington metro…

Many areas have already picked up 3″ of rain on the day and will get in  on a lot more.

The Greatest Risk area will pick up a general 2″-4″ of rain during this time, with locally higher amounts up to 6″ possible. Flooding and flash flooding will be possible. As I’ve mentioned on many occasions, there is a VERY sharp cutoff on the eastern and southeastern side of the heavy rain. That means areas of the east and southeast may not pick up very much at all.

Winds will continue to be an issue into Thursday with gusts of 40mph or greater showing up…

Leftover chilly showers will be with us on Friday, but things clean up for Saturday. Another shower maker moves in later Sunday with another big storm system due in here Tuesday…

Heavy rain, strong storms and high winds will again be possible. Check out the forecast gusts off the European Model…

That’s followed up by a surge of cold air and the potential for another system moving in. The European Model has the first flakes late next week…

Check out the cold on the model behind that…

The GFS Ensembles are also showing the flake potential over the next few weeks…

Here are your tracking tools to get you through the rest of the day…

Have a Happy Halloween and take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 2:33 am

Tracking Our Halloween Storm System

Good Wednesday and Happy Halloween, everyone! Our ‘monster’ of a storm system is coming together and tracking toward the bluegrass state. Rain and a few storms kick in later today, with the worst of the weather on tap later tonight and into Thursday. That’s when our storm system rolls right on top of the bluegrass state.

Let’s begin with a look at the Flood Watch that goes through Friday morning…

Now that we are upon the event, it’s time to hone in a little more on who has the greatest potential for flooding issues. This is a fine line between not much rain and a ton of rain. Here’s the current threat map…

As you can see, the farther west and north, the more rain you are likely to pick up. The farther south and east, amounts will be MUCH lower.

Winds are the other big player with this system. Gusts today can reach 40mph at times. Gusts Thursday into Thursday night may crank to near 50mph in a few spots.

Rain from this system tapers quickly Friday morning with much colder air in place. Highs may stay in the 40s as another system develops and throws chilly showers back in here late Friday through Saturday morning…

The for the rest of Saturday looks windy and seasonally chilly as things dry out pretty quickly. That drying trend won’t last long as another system zips in later Sunday, bringing a few showers with it.

The setup next week is already getting my attention for more heavy rain and high winds as a major fall storm system develops. Unlike the current system, this one will have a lot of cold air coming in behind it with many models showing the first flake potential by the end of the week.

Look at the negative tilt this storm takes on by later Tuesday and Wednesday…

GFS

New version of the GFS

If you’re a true weather fan, you need to take a step back and marvel at what a wild pattern this is. The entire year has been as active as you’re ever going to see around here and I see no reason for this to break anytime soon. Winter weather lovers have to be chomping at the bit to see this same pattern continue into the winter months.

I will have another update later today. Until then, let’s do some Halloween rain tracking…

Make it a good one and take care.

10 Comments