Monthly Archives: November 2018

Time posted: 7:27 pm

Friday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. November is wrapping up on a very dreary note as rain and thunderstorms get ready to roll back in. This action will include a lot of wind to kick off December, with Old Man Winter waiting to crash back in next week.

Showers will increase from southwest to northeast this evening with a few thunderstorms joining in the mix later tonight…

Heavy rain and a few storms will start the day with a break in the action that may follow that up. From there, a broken line of thunderstorms develops and works toward the east. A few strong to, locally, severe storms are possible. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the western part of the state…

Wind gusts of 40-50mph will be possible on Saturday.

Sunday continues to look good, but colder air presses in here on Monday as a weak front drops in from the northwest. That may have a rain or snow shower along and behind it, with a better chance of snow showers moving in as early as Monday night…

From there, light snow and snow showers will be noted Tuesday into Wednesday with light accumulations showing up.

As a cold pattern settles in next week, a storm system is likely to roll eastward across the southern part of the country then try and turn the corner up the coast. As expected, the models are all over the place with this storm and that’s to be expected. Winter weather lovers would probably like to go ahead and lock in the last run of the European Model…

That could bring rain or snow or a combo of the two to our region.

The European Ensembles are currently on board for a track good for some Kentucky snows…

We still have plenty of time to watch this pattern, but the potential is certainly there.

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:14 am

A Stormy Break In Winter Weather

Good Friday, everyone. We have a little break in the winter weather pattern we’ve been in for most of November, but this isn’t a quiet break. Showers and storms will combine with high winds to cause some issues as we close November and begin December. Once into next week, winter returns.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up across many areas, with the focus mainly across the southern half of the state into the afternoon and early evening…

Our next system is a doozy and will bring near blizzard conditions to parts of the plains and upper Midwest. This means showers and storms will increase across Kentucky later tonight. Those storms could be a little on the strong side. The Storm Prediction Center has areas just to our southwest highlighted for severe storms as early as this evening…

The threat for a few strong storms may be noted across Kentucky on Saturday. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…

Even without thunderstorms, winds are going to be very gusty and may reach 40-50mph at times…

Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ is possible for some through Saturday.

Sunday continues to look very good, but windy. Highs are in the upper 50s and low 60s with partly sunny skies.

Colder air filters in on Monday and I’m still watching the potential for a light rain to light snow maker. The models aren’t very enthusiastic with this system right now.. The current GFS has it and produces a light snowfall on Tuesday…

The new version of the GFS has some very light snow and snow showers instead…

That matches up with what most of the other models are showing… Snow showers with light accumulations and very cold temps.

This sets the stage for a storm system to take a southern track across the country, then trying to turn up the east coast. The signal has been there a while, but the details are several days away from being known. All the models have it, but handle it differently from run to run and model to model.

GFS

New version of the GFS

The European…

 I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:32 pm

A Heck Of Weather Ride Ahead

Good evening, folks. It continues to be a pretty wild looking pattern with big rains, high winds, strong storms and the return of Old Man Winter. All of that occurs in the next several days.  Fasten your seatbelts and make sure your trays are in an upright position. 🙂

Showers are increasing quickly this evening as one low pressure works across the region. A few rumbles of thunder are even possible with this action into Friday…

The next system rolling in Friday night into Saturday is another powerful low pressure. This is going to bring blizzard conditions to areas of the plains, but means a lot of rain, strong storms and high winds for our region. Rain and storms increase Friday night, with the potential for a strong line of storms to roll through during the day Saturday…

Can we pop a few severe storms out of that? I certainly think that’s a possibility. High wind is the main player, with gusts that may reach 50mph at times. Yowza.

Hefty rainfall numbers are likely through Saturday. Some 1″-2″ amounts, with locally higher numbers, are likely…

Sunday’s weather looks really nice with mainly dry conditions and gusty winds. Cold air crashes back in Sunday night and Monday. Rain and some snow is possible on Monday as the temps fall. Light snow and snow showers should kick back in for Tuesday and Wednesday with a decent chance to put snow on the ground.

Very cold air comes into play for the middle of the week as we watch to see what happens late next week into the weekend. For days now, I’ve been talking about a storm signal showing up during this timeframe. Of course, it doesn’t mean a storm will happen or that, if it does, it will impact our weather.

That said, the models are picking up on the possibility…

GFS

New version of the GFS

European

Look at the arctic outbreak behind that storm on the European…

As I said… It’s a wild ride ahead of us.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

4 Comments

Time posted: 2:01 am

Our Crazy Weather Pattern Rolls On

Good Thursday, folks. Our weather pattern this year has been nothing short of crazy, especially of late, and it shows no signs of letting up. We are making the transition from a wintry pattern to a wet and windy setup, but Old Man Winter is already plotting his return by early next week. Get your Dramamine ready! 🙂

Low-level cold, dry air is lingering today and that’s going to play a part in the type of precipitation you get for a time today. A touch of sleet and freezing rain will be possible on the leading edge of a light rain shield moving in from the southwest today. With ground temps below freezing, we will need to watch for a few slick spots, especially in the valleys. Temps should go above freezing later this afternoon with light rain taking control pretty quickly. Here are your tracking toys…

A few showers continue across the region on Friday as we close the books on November. Another big system moves in Friday night and Saturday, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms and winds gusting from 40-50mph at times…

Rain totals through Saturday night may range from 1″-2″ in many areas of he state…

Sunday is looking better with gusty winds and just a small shower chance. Colder air oozes in starting late Sunday into Monday as we watch another storm system roll our way. I continue to think this is a rain to snow setup, but we have the usual questions on the evolution of the whole thing. The models continue to waffle back and forth on the evolution, too.

The GFS is a little weaker and convoluted with the setup, but that’s typical of this model in this time range…

Behind that storm system, notice the clipper system diving in with some snow by the middle of next week. That clipper shows up even better on the Canadian, which has a stronger first storm system…

The European is a cross between the GFS and Canadian…

That’s a lot of very cold air showing up right on cue during the first full week of December.

The setup late next week into the weekend is going to try and send a storm rolling east across the south…

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

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Time posted: 12:24 pm

A Touch Of Ice Possible Thursday

Good afternoon, everyone. Snow showers and flurries are still flying across parts of southeastern Kentucky as cold northwest winds continue. As we go into a small break from winter, there’s still the chance a touch of winter weather kicks off that windy and wet break.

Before I get to that, let me throw the regional radar your way to track the flakes in the east…

I’ve talked and talked about the potential for tomorrow’s light rain to start out as a touch of sleet or freezing rain. The models weren’t supporting this, but I chose to live in the real weather world and not the virtual weather world. 😉 Now, the models are trying to get into CB frame of mind and are showing some light ice in the north…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

With low-level cold, dry air in place, a brief period of freezing rain or sleet is possible before we go over to plain old light rain as temps rise.

Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely from Friday through Saturday as low pressure wraps up across the Mississippi Valley and heads toward the Great Lakes. Heavy rainfall and high winds of 40-50mph are possible during this time…

A few strong storms are possible, especially across the west.

Colder air seeps in behind this system by Monday as the next system tries to develop. We are seeing a split in the modelling on how to handle any potential storm system early next week. The GFS goes back and forth with the track of any potential storm. The current run as it on top of us with likely a rain to snow setup…

The Canadian pushes this storm farther south and east and is much weaker. It basically crushes the storm with arctic air flooding in from the northwest…

We shall see how this works out, but it appears to be a rain to snow situation in my eyes.

Very cold air moves in behind that as we watch for a much bigger storm system to take a southern track toward the end of next week…

I will try to update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

14 Comments