Daily Archives: November 4, 2018

Time posted: 2:21 pm

Severe Weather Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks.  Rain and gusty winds are rolling across the state today, but the main focus of the forecast continues to be on the severe weather threat late Monday and early Tuesday. This is a potent storm system that is likely to cause issues across much of Kentucky.

Before we get into all that, let’s track today’s showers from west to east…

Winds may reach 40mph at times this afternoon and evening.

The severe weather threat for late Monday into Monday night is for the entire state. The Storm Prediction Center is slowly adjusting farther north and east with the main threat…

Their adjustments across Kentucky are way too slow and too far south. I expect the main severe threat to ramp up across central Kentucky Monday night. Watch for this area to get upgraded to a moderate risk.

Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible across the state. The wind damage threat is very high, with power outages a good possibility. This may very well cause issues for a few polling places early Election Day.

These storms may also be major rain producers that cause flash flooding. Look at the model forecasts for rainfall from just Monday night…

GFS

Hi Res NAM

2″-3″ of rain may fall in just a few hours. Given how wet we are, that could easily cause flash flooding issues to develop.

The rain clears out pretty quickly on Tuesday as gusty winds remain for voters. Temps drop behind this system, with seasonally cold air for Wednesday and Thursday. Another system then moves our way with rain that may end as some snowflakes on Friday or Saturday…

That’s some very cold air coming in behind that front with highs that may stay in the 30s next weekend.

Another winter looking system then drops in after that…

This is the new version of the GFS and it’s much more in line with reality than the current GFS. Check out the snow numbers from that run over the next 10 days…

The GFS Ensembles are all over the snow potential over the next few weeks…

Shots of arctic air look to show up behind each system moving in. Check out how impressive the below normal numbers are…

Folks, this is a full blown winter pattern setting up over the next few weeks. Not only should it bring the first flakes our way, it can very well put down the first accumulating snows.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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