Daily Archives: November 4, 2018

Time posted: 2:21 pm

Severe Weather Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks.  Rain and gusty winds are rolling across the state today, but the main focus of the forecast continues to be on the severe weather threat late Monday and early Tuesday. This is a potent storm system that is likely to cause issues across much of Kentucky.

Before we get into all that, let’s track today’s showers from west to east…

Winds may reach 40mph at times this afternoon and evening.

The severe weather threat for late Monday into Monday night is for the entire state. The Storm Prediction Center is slowly adjusting farther north and east with the main threat…

Their adjustments across Kentucky are way too slow and too far south. I expect the main severe threat to ramp up across central Kentucky Monday night. Watch for this area to get upgraded to a moderate risk.

Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible across the state. The wind damage threat is very high, with power outages a good possibility. This may very well cause issues for a few polling places early Election Day.

These storms may also be major rain producers that cause flash flooding. Look at the model forecasts for rainfall from just Monday night…

GFS

Hi Res NAM

2″-3″ of rain may fall in just a few hours. Given how wet we are, that could easily cause flash flooding issues to develop.

The rain clears out pretty quickly on Tuesday as gusty winds remain for voters. Temps drop behind this system, with seasonally cold air for Wednesday and Thursday. Another system then moves our way with rain that may end as some snowflakes on Friday or Saturday…

That’s some very cold air coming in behind that front with highs that may stay in the 30s next weekend.

Another winter looking system then drops in after that…

This is the new version of the GFS and it’s much more in line with reality than the current GFS. Check out the snow numbers from that run over the next 10 days…

The GFS Ensembles are all over the snow potential over the next few weeks…

Shots of arctic air look to show up behind each system moving in. Check out how impressive the below normal numbers are…

Folks, this is a full blown winter pattern setting up over the next few weeks. Not only should it bring the first flakes our way, it can very well put down the first accumulating snows.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:15 am

Severe Weather and High Winds Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Its full steam ahead toward a big storm system moving into the region over the next few days. This brings a severe weather threat to town, with damaging winds showing up as the primary player Monday night and early Tuesday.

Before the big show arrives, the opening act moves across the state today. This is a fairly weak front, but it will bring showers and gusty winds from west to east…

Low pressure develops across the Mississippi Valley on Monday and quickly heads toward the Great Lakes, strengthening along the way. Severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of this system from the Ohio Valley into parts of the deep south…

All modes of severe weather are possible from late Monday into Election Day morning. That includes damaging winds, large hail and a few torandoes.

Here’s the Monday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

The Tuesday Outlook…

The damaging wind threat is especially high, with several models suggesting 60mph+ gusts in our region. The European Model gust forecast is crazy on Monday night…

The storms end very quickly Tuesday morning with gusty winds and chilly temps for the rest of the day.

That cold air continues to sink in as another low pressure develops and skirts by to our south. This may open the door for rain or a mix of rain and snow by the end of the week…

This kicks off a very cold look on the GFS Ensembles…

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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