Daily Archives: November 10, 2018

Time posted: 7:48 pm

A Few Late Evening Thoughts

Good evening, fellow weather weenies. I wanted to drop by for a super quick update on the rain and snow system moving in here for early next week. As we get closer to the storm system, things start to come into a little better focus.

The energy with this storm system is fairly strung out, leading to lighter precipitation across the bluegrass state. You can see the strung out nature of the system on the future radar/satellite from the Hi Res Nam. This only goes through Monday evening…

You can see how the main band of precipitation is in the form of rain as expected. Then you see rain and snow filling in behind that, but it’s lighter in nature.

Here’s a little more specific look at my current expectations from this system…

The best chance for some accumulations comes later Monday night into Tuesday. Given the amount of cold surging into the state, wet roads can turn a little icy even without much snow.

Another storm system may try to impact us late in the week, with another arctic surge behind it for the weekend. I will have a full update on all this early season winter mischief coming up later tonight.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:47 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good Saturday, everyone. The first flakes of the season have come and gone, but very cold air remains. Temps are barely into the low and middle 30s for most of the state under almost full sun. Out attention now turns to the developing storm system targeting the region with rain and snow Monday and Tuesday.

This system continues to look like a rain maker to begin, with a quick transition to a swath of snow late Monday into Tuesday. Here’s the latest GFS…

The Canadian Model is similar, but develops a second wave of low pressure right behind that main system. Notice how this second wave brings a better snow chance to the southeast late Tuesday…

Overall, I still feel good with my target area for the best chance of, at least, light accumulations of snow…

The GFS Ensembles snow map is similar…

I may throw out a first call map later tonight, so check back. This is likely to be a light snow event.

In my last post, I said my old weather sniffer was picking up on a signal for next weekend that was not showing up on the models. Well, that is now showing up on the models. 🙂

Another deep trough digs into the eastern part of the country, bringing more frigid temps and snow chances our way. Can we actually get some kind of storm system to accompany it? The Canadian is trying…

The GFS is also trying, but appears to be having bias issues of east coast systems being too far east initially…

The European Model is most similar to the Canadian, but has a much deeper and colder setup…

 

Still, that’s another deep heart of winter trough digging into our region and would bring our third snow threat in about a week. I love it when I sniff something out without any model support whatsoever, then the models show it. Take that computers!!! #teamweatherdude 🙂

I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:04 am

Snow Threat Continues To Increase

Good Saturday, folks. Old Man Winter crashed into the region last night, bringing snow showers and frigid winds. This is the opening act to a potential bigger storm system rolling our way late Monday into Tuesday. That’s a winter storm that can bring accumulating snow to much of the region.

Let’s begin with today’s weather and then roll ahead.

The morning starts with a few flurries and snow showers quickly working away from eastern Kentucky. These flakes are leaving behind a few dusted rooftops and decks…

Temps are frigid with readings in the 20s and wind chills in the teens this morning. Sunshine and 30s take over for the afternoon.

Our developing winter storm takes aim at the region Monday and Tuesday with rain and snow. How much snow falls and where it falls remain to be seen. That depends on the strength and exact track of the low from the Gulf up the east coast.

I put this map together Friday afternoon and I’m sticking with it…

That doesn’t mean you will have snow on the ground where you live, but it’s showing the area I believe to have the greatest risk of getting accumulating snows. Could be a light accumulation or something a little bigger, I’m just not quite sure yet.

All of this looks to start as rain on Monday then switch to snow Monday night and Tuesday. This shows up on every model we see…

NAM

GFS

New GFS

Canadian

That’s also some VERY cold air coming in here behind that system. If we can put snow on the ground… IF… Then we could challenge record lows.

As I look beyond that system… The trough lifts out pretty quickly, but we need to watch for something digging in behind that for next weekend. No model is really showing much, but you know me and the signals I pick up on. 🙂

Updates will be coming throughout the day, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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