Daily Archives: November 20, 2018

Time posted: 7:02 pm

Thoughts On The Pattern Ahead

Good evening, folks. It’s another cold, dreary November day wrapping up across the bluegrass state. As we inch closer to Thanksgiving, we will be seeing much better weather rolling in for holiday travelers. Once past the big day, this very active pattern ramps back up, with winter weather chances increasing.

There could still be a leftover sprinkle or snow flurry before the evening is finished. Not much of that will show up on regional radar so don’t stress your eyes trying to find them…

Wednesday and Thanksgiving continue to look dry with a healthy temperature spread from northeast to southwest, with areas in the northeast being much chillier.

Black Friday starts off in good shape, but rain sweeps in late in the day into Friday night. That system lingers into Saturday…

The system behind that is likely a big wind maker from Sunday through Tuesday. Rain is likely along and ahead of this system, with a switch to a mix of rain and snow then a few snow showers…

I’m still watching the setup behind that for the end of next week. That’s a setup that has been throwing a winter storm signal out from time to time. The late day GFS picked up on that possibility…

The pattern closing November and beginning December has a cold and wintry look to it. The European Ensembles show a major block across the Arctic and that forces a split in the polar vortex. One piece of that goes to the other side of the globe, with another piece heading into Canada…

That could lead to a direct discharge of arctic air into the eastern half of the country for early December…

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:29 am

Thanksgiving Weather & A Return To Winter

Good Tuesday, folks. We are just one day away from the infamous Planes, Trains and Automobile post and that can only mean one thing… Thanksgiving is near. While the weather looks pretty good for the big day, the active pattern returns this weekend with a winter look setting in next week.

Speaking of winter, there’s a touch of winter possible today. Scattered rain and snow showers are dotting the skyline across parts of central and eastern Kentucky today…

Highs today are generally in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Wednesday is the busiest travel day of the year and the weather looks pretty good. Temps will be seasonally chilly with a few clouds increasing across the central and east. Those clouds are ahead of a front dropping into eastern Kentucky from the northeast. That brings a little more chill in these areas for Thanksgiving, with milder air in the far west. Check out the highs on the NAM…

The core of hat arctic air is across the northeastern part of the country and will impact the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Look at those wind chills to start…

Yowza!!

Our next system blows in very quickly by Black Friday afternoon and evening. Rain will increase from west to east and continue into the first half of Saturday…

Once that moves away, we focus on yet another storm system moving into the region by late Sunday and Monday. The models vary with how to handle this system, but do show quite a bit of wind, rain and then some snow. The GFS decided to turn this storm into a biggie..

The European Model isn’t nearly as strong, but also shows a similar scenario with a wrap around light snow maker following it up…

As that trough gets established behind the exiting storm… Watch the end of next week for another storm to develop and threaten us with wintry weather.

The final winter forecast from the Jamstec matches up well with the pattern unfolding next week into early December. This has a lot of cold across the country with above normal precipitation in our region…

This winter has the potential to be a heavyweight for a lot of the country!

I will have more updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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