Monthly Archives: December 2018

Time posted: 12:31 pm

Severe Storms Tracker

Good afternoon, everyone. This is going to be a short post just to get you guys set up with all the tracking tools you need to follow the active day of weather. High winds and strong to severe storms are rolling across the state on this New Year’s Eve.

A squall line of thunderstorms will race eastward across the state this afternoon into early this evening. That line should weaken very quickly as it gets into eastern Kentucky after dark.

Damaging wind is the primary threat, but a tornado or two is possible across areas of south central Kentucky, especially.

Winds are going to crank with or without storms. Gusts of 50mph will be possible as our low pressure develops and rolls across the Ohio Valley. With a wet ground and soggy root system, watch for the possibility of a few trees being uprooted.

The late week storm system is going to move right on top of us, bringing heavy rain and the potential for some snow Thursday and Friday. I will get into that with my next update. Until then, let’s track today’s action…

Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Happy New Year and take care.

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Time posted: 1:44 am

High Water and Severe Storms Threat

Good Monday and Happy New Year’s Eve. We have a very busy weather day taking shape across Kentucky as a big storm system rolls through. This is bringing the possibility of severe storms, high winds and high water to much of the region. Honestly, 2018 can’t end soon enough.

Our day starts with heavy rain and some thunder lifting to the north along a warm front. This action may put down a quick 1″-2″ of rain, leading to local high water issues for some. As that lifts to the north, warmer air shoots into the state. This air is also very humid and a bit unstable for this time of year and that could spell strong or severe storms later today.

Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible during this time.

That line of storms will also bring another round of heavy rain with it. Here’s a look at the areas that have the best chance at seeing some high water issues today…

High winds may gust to 50mph or a little better at times today into this evening. With a wet ground keeping the root system very soft, it won’t take much to cause some trees to be uprooted.

The next system rolling in later in the week continues to look like another high impact system for Kentucky. Rain and snow are both possible from Wednesday night through Friday…

Canadian

GFS

New version of the GFS

Heavy rain and snow are both possible from that storm system, with details still to be determined.

As this hyper-active pattern continues, another storm shows up a few days later…

Let’s get back to tracking today’s big storm system. I will have updates as needed throughout the day. I leave you with your tracking tools for the day…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great final day of the year and take care.

29 Comments

Time posted: 7:47 pm

Sunday Night Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a very active end to 2018 as rounds of showers and thunderstorms drench the region. We are tracking the potential for enough rain to cause local flooding problems, high winds, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms for the final day of the year.

Heavy rain and some thunder will quickly develop tonight as a warm front moves in from the southwest. These fronts can be overachievers in terms of rainfall and that has me a little more concerned for local high water issues tonight and early Monday. Then, a line of thunderstorms works east with another round of torrential rains late day into the evening.

Here’s where I think has the greatest risk for, at least, local high water issues to develop…

You can see this massive round of rain developing and rolling in from the southwest…

As that warm front lifts to the north, instability, temps and humidity surge. As the low works south to north just to our west, it will cause thunderstorms to increase across Kentucky and Tennessee. Some of those storms may be severe with damaging winds and a tornado or two possible. The SPC has much of the region in a severe weather risk for New Year’s Eve…

With or without severe thunderstorms, high winds appear to be a good bet once again. Those gusts may reach 50mph or greater at times.

As of now, there are no wind advisories or flood watches anywhere across our region.

Cold air pours in behind this system on New Year’s Day as we wait on the next storm to target this region. This will likely bring rain and snow our way Thursday and Friday. It’s still way too early for any kind of specifics other than I do expect some rain and snow in Kentucky.

The GFS is still seeing this storm, but flips and flops from run to run…

The late day new version of the GFS shows quite a bit of rain and snow impacting our weather…

Again, we shall see how this works out.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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