Monthly Archives: December 2018

Time posted: 7:48 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, weather weenies. The weather is calm (thank goodness) to start the week and this calm weather carries us for a few more days. After that, we are going to crank it up once again with another big time storm system moving in here later this week. This will bring a lot of rain and wind out way, with just a small chance for some wraparound flakes.

That system really doesn’t arrive until late Thursday into Friday then sticks around into Saturday. It’s in response to a massive upper level low that slowly spins across the region. Wind will be a big player with gusts of 40mph at times. Rainfall numbers may reach 1-2″ in some areas, with thunder a possibility. Can we get some wraparound flakes out of this? Maybe, but it depends on how strong the surface low gets.

The GFS…

The Icon…

Milder air comes back in behind that and takes us into early next week. Beyond that, we start to see the pattern flipping back to cold setup we’ve had since late October. It also keeps the action going as we head into Christmas week…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:29 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a cold, but nice start to the new week across the bluegrass state, but another big storm system rolls in later this week. That will bring a lot of rain, wind, some thunder and even the chance for wraparound snowflakes.

The weather through Wednesday looks fairly quiet and that’s a good thing. We have earned a few quiet days. By Wednesday night and Thursday, things change in a big way. We have a big upper level low slowly working across the region for the second half of the week into the start of the weekend. These systems have a mind of their own because they’re cut off from the main flow.

The theme of the models is the same, but big differences show up in how they handle the actual powerhouse low pressure.

The GFS only gives the chance for some flakes on the backlash moisture, but has a clipper with snow following that up…

The Canadian has much more wraparound snows behind this storm, but does not have the GFS clipper…

The ICON is more in the mindset of the Canadian…

All of this is in an otherwise milder overall pattern across the country. That starts to change later next week as blocking shows back up. That’s likely good news for Christmas week as the pattern trends colder, with some snow chances trying to show up, too.  I’m dreaming of a… Ok, I won’t sing, but I bet you are now. 🙂

I will hook you up with an update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:30 am

This Busy Pattern Won’t Slow Down

Good Monday, everyone. It’s a new week, but the same super-charged pattern remains for our part of the world. It’s one that will throw two more systems our way in the coming days, with the second system being another potent storm. Can we get some winter weather out of this “milder” setup? That’s a possibility.

As always, let’s start with today and roll forward.

Some light snow may begin the day in the far south central and southeast. Regardless of that, the many areas that picked up ice and snow on Sunday will likely still be dealing with slick roads to begin the day. Watch those icy spots. Here’s regional radar to see if those light snows are in the southern areas to start the day…

Another weak system moves in here late Wednesday and may bring a few showers. There’s a chance for this to be in the form of some white stuff, but I’m not sold on that.

This will be  followed up by a massive upper low slowly spinning on top of us. That should crank up a powerhouse low pressure bringing heavy rain, wind and some thunder to us later Thursday into part of Friday. What happens after that depends on where the upper low decided to travel.

The Canadian has this thing spinning on top of us and then to the northeast, tapping cold air with wraparound snows late Friday and Saturday…

The new version of the GFS is very similar with this big storm…

The GFS keeps this mess more discombobulated  with a much smaller chance for wraparound flakes…

We will have to wait and see how this works out, but this is likely a big wind maker around here.

Next week looks like the potential for another big slow-moving storm system to develop. Check out this deepening trough moving in…

Normal updates come your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 8:50 pm

Weekend Winter Storm Wrap Up

Good evening, folks. Sorry for the late update, but your friendly weatherdude had to squeeze in a little nap and do some grocery shopping. 🙂 I wanted to drop by to update where this pattern goes as we inch closer and closer to Christmas.

Our winter storm continues to push east but the upper level low is going to try and spin up one more round of light snow tonight and Monday morning across parts of the far southeast and far south central parts of the state…

That can spit out some light accumulations for some of the areas that got jumped by the snow earlier today. Here’s regional radar to track the action…

As temps drop well below freezing tonight, watch for slick spots to develop on area roads in the south and southeast. Many school systems have already called off for tomorrow, marking the 4th snow day already for some districts. 18 days of snow already this season and it’s only December 9th. There have been full winters that didn’t feature hat many days with some snow flying. 😉

A seasonal brand of cold is with us to start the week, with a big system lurking for the end of the week. Sandwiched in between is a sneaky little system that may try to bring rain and snow in here at some point Wednesday…

That’s the European Model and that action is on the leading edge of some milder air pushing in ahead of the big rain and wind maker late Thursday through Saturday. This comes via a monster upper level low that will likely spin overhead. This is a setup that has the potential to go from thunderstorms to snowflakes…

The overall pattern for the week ahead SHOULD be very mild, given the setup across North America. One way you know when you’re in for a good winter is when cold still finds a way to show up in these types of patterns, like what we are seeing on the above maps.

Things remain super active into the following week as mild air starts to get pushed around. Watch how the Ensembles go toward a deepening trough during this time…

See those higher heights starting to pop around Alaska toward the North Pole? That blocking then tries to really get established Christmas week. Look at that thumb ridge going up in those same areas in the days leading up to Christmas…

If you want the potential for a white Christmas, you want a hemispheric pattern similar to the one above.

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:00 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Our winter storm continues across parts of southern and eastern Kentucky. This has been one of the weirdest storms in terms of precipitation types and locations. Where do we go from here? I will get to that in a bit.

Let’s talk a little more about the current storm. Overall, I’m pleased with how it played out in terms of the forecast. This was a storm everyone had totally written off as missing Kentucky, but I held on and Old Man Winter did the rest. As we talked about on here, this system came much farther north and west that the models were suggesting, with wintry weather into the bluegrass region and into northeastern Kentucky. This thing basically fit right into the geographical area we forecast.

The freezing rain forecast was a good one as this basically turned into an ice storm for some areas of south central Kentucky. Power lines and trees have been taken down, leading to power outages.

The snow is going strong in the southeast, but had a total bust zone around and south of London because a bubble of warm air stayed put this morning. That’s such a small scale bubble that it’s hard for man or computer to see until it’s actually happening. If we had balloon launches on the hour, every hour from every city in the region, maybe that would help, but that’s obviously not realistic. Still, it sucks for those folks in that area wanting snow. I feel ya!

As the main storm pulls away this afternoon, far southeastern Kentucky has a chance at getting  in on another band of light snow and light freezing rain later tonight and early Monday. That has a chance to clip some of the area in the snow bust zone from earlier today. That may help out some and I may even have to make a map for it.

After a cold start to the week ahead, temps mild up for the middle of the week as a powerhouse of  a storm rolls our way from Thursday through Saturday. This is a big rain and wind maker and may produce a few thunderstorms ahead of it and snowflakes behind it…

The following week will have another bumpy ride with a temp surge and temp drop with another storm system moving in. The pattern leading up to Christmas and into Christmas week has a chance to turn special across the country. Arctic air gets back into the pattern with an active storm track…

I will update things later today. For now, here are your tracking toys for the rest of this winter storm…

Fort Campbell

Kentucky/Tennessee border on I-65

Bowling Green

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Richmond

South Lexington

Morehead

Make it a good one and take care.

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