Monthly Archives: December 2018

Time posted: 1:40 pm

Severe Storms and High Winds To End 2018

Good afternoon, folks. New Year’s Eve continues to look very active across the bluegrass state as another massive storm targets the region. Heavy rain, high winds and severe thunderstorms look to sweep across Kentucky, causing some issues along the way.

  • Rain moves in tonight and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
  • Warmer air moves in for Monday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
  • A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
  • Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
  • High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph. Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.
  • A few strong to severe storms are possible across much of the state. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible in this environment.

The Storm Prediction Center now has a Marginal to Slight Risk for much of the state…

The storm that comes after this is still in the “YTBD” category. This likely brings rain and snow to Kentucky Thursday into Friday, but there are too many unanswered questions remaining for me to be more specific than that.

The GFS continues to see the storm, but it cannot figure out what to do with it. The morning run of the model teased us…

The same model run from 6 hours earlier dropped the snow hammer on us…

That actually matches what the Canadian Model has been showing for a few days. The new Canadian shows the same thing…

The new version of the GFS is a cross between the Canadian and GFS…

The European Model continues to be the slowest with the whole evolution and that’s likely because of the model bias of holding energy too long in the southwest. That leads to a farther west solution…

That just looks odd, but we shall see.

I will drop by for another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:07 am

Here We Go Again

Good Sunday, folks. As the wettest year on record for many draws to a close, we have another big storm system rolling into the region. This will bring heavy rain and high winds back into the bluegrass state. This will bring the potential for wind damage and local high water issues.

Here’s a breakdown of our latest storm system…

  • Rain moves in tonight and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
  • Warmer air moves in for Sunday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
  • A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
  • Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
  • High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph.
  • Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.
  • A few strong to severe storms are possible in the central and west.

The Storm Prediction Center has this area in a low risk for severe weather…

Much colder air sweeps in behind this system to start the new year as we watch another southern stream storm system. If you’re a regular reader, you know the models were showing barely any kind of system well to our south and east. I’ve talked about how they would correct themselves as we got closer and they would increase this system and show it farther west. Well, that’s what’s happening.

The GFS had a whole lot of nothing until the overnight run, then it decided to find the storm…

So did the new version of the GFS…

The Canadian Model is going bonkers with the system…

The European Model appears to still be dragging its feet with the upper low…

What does all this mean for Kentucky’s weather? It’s still way too early for specifics, but rain and snow will threaten the region Thursday into Friday. That’s about as good as I can give you from this far out. 🙂

I will have updates later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:43 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a much colder day in the bluegrass state, but it’s all eyes on another potent storm system on the way to close out 2018. I have no changes with this storm or the one that tries to follow it up during the first few days of the new year.

Some highlights of the New Year’s Eve storm:

  • Rain moves in Sunday night and will be heavy at times as a warm front lifts northward through the state.
  • Warmer air moves in for Sunday and temps surge into the 60s central and eastern Kentucky.
  • A squall line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the state during the afternoon and evening.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-3″ will be possible during this event, especially in the west and central parts of Kentucky.
  • Some, at least, local high water issues will be possible.
  • High winds are going to be a major player and could reach between 50mph and 60mph.
  • Another round of wind damage is possible with this event.

Here’s how this storm looks…

Colder air crashes in behind this with system for New Year’s Day. As northwesterly winds kick in, I can’t rule out some flurries or snow showers late in the day into Wednesday.

The next system to potentially impact our weather would arrive Thursday into Friday. The GFS and new GFS are both well south and develop no storm…

The European Model has another major storm impacting the state with heavy rain, heavy snow and gusty winds…

That run of the Euro trended colder than the overnight run. One of the biases of the model is to be too far west with such systems because it holds on to the southwestern energy too long.

The Canadian continues to throw some snow into Kentucky…

The Icon Model continues to be farther north with rain and snow…

As you can see, it’s the entire modelling world verses the GFS and that’s usually a bad sign for the American model. As always, we shall see.

I will update things this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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