Daily Archives: December 2, 2018

Time posted: 8:03 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the winter weather potential for the week ahead, including the late week/weekend storm system.

Colder air is moving in from the west right now and will only grow colder over the next few days. A stray shower is possible on Monday as temps stay in the upper 30s and low 40s for many. Areas of light snow and snow showers are likely Tuesday into Wednesday, with light accumulations showing up.

After a touch of rain and snow Thursday night, it’s full steam ahead toward a southern stream storm system. That rolls from west to east then tries to turn up the east coast. As we have talked about many times, the exact track is the determining factor on how much winter weather we get here in Kentucky.

The models will vary with the track from run to run and won’t settle in for a discernible trend for a few more days, so don’t take any one run to hear.

It’s fun to look at the Ensembles to see what they are saying. I typically show you the average map from the various runs of the different Ensembles. Here’s the average of the GFS Ensembles…

You can see how the average of the Ensembles is to bring a swath of snow across the state with our southern storm system. That smoothed average is made up of 21 different runs. If we look at each of those runs, you can see how the disagreement with where the best snow tracks…

The average of the European Ensembles from WeatherBell.com is for a similar swath of snow across the state, but is just a little south of the GFS Ensembles average…

That average comes from a whopping 51 different members. This is a heck of a spread showing up among those 51 different runs…

The new version of the GFS is still on bard with a farther north solution and is similar to what climatology suggests for this time of year…

As you can see, it’s going to be a fun week of tracking light snows and the potential for a bigger system by late Friday and Saturday. Not too shabby for the first week of December!

I’ll see you guys later tonight for the full update. Until then, make it a good evening. Take care

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Time posted: 1:54 pm

Sunday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. Our weekend is wrapping up on a very windy, but very nice note as temps reach the 60s under sunny skies. Soak it up because Old Man Winter is about to roll back into the bluegrass state with multiple snow chances for the week ahead, and the potential for a bigger system late Friday and Saturday.

A cold front moves is moving in from the east this evening and brings much colder air tonight Monday. Highs on Monday are generally in the upper 30s to low 40s with a shower popping in the afternoon. That colder air continues to settle in Tuesday and Wednesday with light snow and snow showers becoming common. Light accumulations are a good bet, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. That shows up on the models…

New version of the GFS

GFS

Canadian

Wednesday may find a few delays and cancellations across the region.

Another system zips through here late Thursday into Thursday night. This may have some rain and snow with it, with the potential for another light accumulating snowfall for some.

That system is likely to have an impact on the track of the potential winter storm coming behind it for late Friday into the weekend.

We’re likely to see another potent low eject out of the southwest and roll from east to west across the southern states. That’s likely to then turn the corner up the east coast. The exact track of that low will be the determining factor on exactly where that low goes and how much winter weather it can bring us.

Let’s check in on the current model runs to see what they are cooking up.

The latest European Model has a very suppressed storm track that takes snow well to our south…

The new version of the GFS continues with a good winter storm hit…

The GFS is very similar…

The Canadian is just a smidge farther south with all that…

There’s still plenty of time to watch this system and the models will vary from run to run, sometimes drastically.

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:53 am

Winter Weather On The Way

Good Sunday, everyone. Heavy rain and thunderstorms drenched many areas of the bluegrass state on Saturday, setting rainfall records along the way. We are getting a nice break from the rain today, but Old Man Winter is ready to take control of the pattern again as we head into the new week. Several snow chances are on the weather menu, including the potential for a late week winter storm impact.

Morning showers and storms move way, leaving a mostly sunny sky for many. Winds will be gusty with many thermometers topping out in the 60s. Winds will continue to be rather gusty, but the day looks pretty good in the overall scheme of things.

Another cold front drops in here on Monday and will knock our temps down quickly from northwest to southeast. A shower or two is possible as our front moves through, with some flakes flying by Monday night. The setup for Tuesday and Wednesday will feature some light snow, snow showers, and snow flurries for much of the region. There is an increasing threat for a light snowfall for many areas. The models are hinting at this…

New GFS

European Model

The best chance of putting light snow on the ground is Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Another sneaky light snow system zips quickly across the Ohio Valley late Thursday into Thursday night. This has the chance to throw a little more of the flake action as far south as the bluegrass state…

This sets the stage for the system we’ve been talking about for a long time now. It’s a southern stream winter storm that works from west to east then tries to turn the corner up the east coast. Those kinds of storms usually threaten our region with decent winter weather.

Our forecast models continue to have their usual waffles from several days out, but that’s typical and you shouldn’t get caught up in any one run or model. Let’s get a check of said models to see what they are looking like as of this writing…

The European Model continues to show a pretty big snow hit for much of the state and region…

The GFS is farther south than prior runs, showing much more of a snow threat…

The new version of the GFS is singing a similar tune…

The Canadian…

If we look at the GFS Ensembles, they continue to grow much more confident in snowfall over the next two weeks. Look how far south the snow line goes…

I will have updates coming your way later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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