Daily Archives: December 3, 2018

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Updating The Snow Potential

Good evening, folks. Winter is back in the bluegrass state with rain showers changing to snow showers this evening. This sets the stage for rounds of light snows the next several days, with some accumulation a good bet. This may wind up as the appetizer to a bigger system impacting the region this weekend.

A touch of sleet is joining the rain and snow showers crossing the state this evening…

A cold northwest flow usually delivers snow showers to our region and that can increase if you have some embedded disturbances in that flow. That’s exactly what we have from alter Tuesday into Wednesday. That should be able to put down some light accumulating snows. Many areas can pick up a coating to 1″, with local 1″-2″ amounts possible in the east.

The models continue to grow a little more enthusiastic about the light snows…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Again, the best chance to put light snow on the ground is Tuesday night.

Another system is expected to move in here by late Thursday into Thursday night. Rain and snow develops and It could be another light snowfall showing up for some…

That brings us to the potential winter storm that could impact our weather this weekend. Let me say this is NOT even close to being set in stone, but the potential is certainly there. The models are showing a little better agreement, but still have some work to do.

The new version of the GFS continues to lay a smackdown on the region…

I’ve been talking about how the current version of the GFS has a bias of being too flat and too far east and south. Well, the late day run certainly shed that bias…

The European Model still has some feedback issues at the start of the storm, but it’s starting to shed those, too. Here’s the swath of snow from the latest run…

If we look at the average of the 51 member European Ensembles, you see a more consistent swath of snow across the state…

The GFS Ensembles are also enthusiastic…

As I said, this is nowhere near being set in stone, so let’s just hang tight and see how it plays out over the next few days.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:28 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Cold air continues to settle into the region from the northwest. This is being accompanied by a few showers that will change to snow showers later today into tonight. This kicks off a very wintry setup for the rest of the week as we watch to see what kind of impact a late week/weekend winter storm may have on our weather.

In the short term, temps continue to hang out in the upper 30s and low 40s. Showers will increase with flakes kicking in during the evening…

Periods of light snow and snow showers will be around Tuesday into Wednesday, with light accumulations likely. The best chance to put some snow on the ground is Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

The models are locked in on some light accumulations…

Canadian RGEM

HI Res NAM

NAM

GFS

A few delays and cancellations are possible Wednesday.

The next system moves in late Thursday into Thursday night and may put down some light accumulations…

As far as the late week and weekend winter storm potential goes… I have no changes. While we are definitely in the game to be impacted by this storm, it’s too early for any kind of specifics. It all depends on the track of the low and we are still a few days away from having that one figured out.

The Canadian continues with a big Kentucky hit…

The new version of the GFS is also a huge Kentucky hit…

The ICON has a similar setup…

The bias of the GFS is for the model to be too far south and east with storm systems. The current model is living up to that bias…

Of course, there’s always the chance of the blind squirrel finding the nut, but that kind of a setup seems pretty unlikely.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another blog update this evening. Make it a great day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Winter Rolls Back Into The Bluegrass State

Good Monday, folks. The first full week of December is kicking off with much colder air pressing in from the northwest. This air grows colder as over the next few days as periods of light snow and flurries settle in. All of this is ahead of a southern stream storm system that may impact our weather late Friday into the weekend.

As mentioned, colder air is pushing in today with highs generally in the upper 30s and low 40s. A shower or two will be noted and should be mainly rain, but a few flakes will be possible during the evening…

Periods of light snow, snow showers and flurries  then work across the region over the next few days. Light accumulations are a good bet, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. That’s when we have a chance at delays and cancellations.

Can a few areas pick up an inch or so total from the next 2 days? Yep and the models are getting closer. The Hi Res NAM only goes through Tuesday night…

The new version of the GFS

GFS

Another weak system brings some rain and snow our way late Thursday into Thursday night. That’s a fast mover and looks fairly light.

That brings us to our developing winter storm and the potential impact on Kentucky. Like with any storm… It’s all about the track of the low, but we are still a few days away from being able to say with confidence where that will be.

The latest Canadian is a big hit across the bluegrass state…

The new version of the GFS has a similar hit…

The GFS impacts the southern half of the state…

The bias of the GFS is for such systems to be too flat and too far south and east. Of course, that doesn’t mean it will correct north and west, but I’m pointing out the well documented bias of the model.

The European Model went from being the farthest north of the models, to being the farthest south on Sunday. The latest run adjusts to the north and west, but it still has some very obvious issues. Convective feedback has been a problem with the Euro all year and it’s showing up in the initial stages of our storm developing across Texas. Convective feedback is when a model develops spurious thunderstorm clusters that show up as bullseyes of heavy rainfall. You can see those diamond shape issues on the first three panels I’ve highlighted…

The model gets confused by the false convection and jumps the low near or under where that spurious thunderstorm action is. It also typically slows the overall progression of the system on that particular model. Look at the fourth panel above and you will see the model is losing the feedback issue. Now, watch how quickly the Euro then tries to correct itself north and west…

Even with the convective feedback issues, it still manages to bring hefty snows into areas of central and eastern Kentucky.

There is still a lot of model shaking out to do in the coming days. You’re still gonna see some wild swings until about Wednesday. That’s when things should settle down, with this storm much more in focus for the models.

That said, I’m probably going to put out an “outlook” map later today, so check back. Make it a great Monday and take care.

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