Daily Archives: December 4, 2018

Time posted: 7:34 pm

Winter Weather Advisory Update

Good evening, folks. Rounds of light snow continue to push across the bluegrass state, putting down light accumulations. Many areas are now under a Winter Weather Advisory through early Wednesday as travel conditions go downhill overnight.

Farther down the road, it’s still all eyes on the weekend storm system and the impact it may have on Kentucky.

Let’s get you caught up on the Winter Weather Advisory…

Lots of coatings to 1″ of snow will show up, but some embedded bands of 1″-2″ will be possible. Again, not everyone sees more than a coating of snow from this, but delays and cancellations are likely later tonight and early Wednesday.

The weekend storm system continues to show up on very well on the models, but the track and evolution are still in flux. This is being hampered by the issues with the new version of the GFS. I haven’t had a full run of it since last night, so that’s making it a little tough because the model has actually been doing very well.

The current GFS continues to show a similar track and evolution to what the new GFS has been showing…

Here’s the overall snow map from that particular run…

The average from the GFS Ensembles isn’t too different…

The individual members are still showing a decent spread…

The operational European Model continues to absolutely hammer the southern half of Kentucky into areas of Tennessee and the Carolinas…

The average from the 51 member European Ensembles from WeatherBell is farther north and more expansive…

As you can see, we still have a lot of work to do to see how much of an impact this storm has on the weather across Kentucky. It’s still too early for me to say, with any certainty, how this plays out for the bluegrass state.

I will have a potential map for you later tonight and on WKYT-TV starting at 11. I leave you with your evening light snow tracking toys…

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

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Louisville

No image available.

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E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

Enjoy the evening and take care.

26 Comments

Time posted: 12:22 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, gang. Areas of light snow and snow showers continue to push across the bluegrass state. This action is putting down some hit and run coatings, with a better chance for sticking snow later tonight. From there, all eyes are on the potential winter storm for the weekend.

I have no real changes to the light snow forecast through Wednesday. Many areas see the coatings, with local 1″ amounts possible, especially in streaks across the east…

There could be another area in the west that sees something similar taking place. That shows up on the models…

Canadian

Hi Res NAM

Slick spots will develop on area roads tonight and early Wednesday.

The next system zips quickly into town late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing a period of rain and snow. Light accumulations will again be possible…

The weekend storm system continues to come into a little better focus on the models. The GFS and Canadian are now seeing that second spin on top of us this weekend as the main low tries to turn the corner up the east coast. This scenario is what the new version of the GFS has been showing…

GFS

Canadian

As I’ve mentioned a million times already, this is not set in stone and I can’t tell you if you’re getting a little bit of snow or a lot of snow. It’s still early in the game, but we are firmly in the game that’s being played.

Updates will come your way later today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4. I leave you with your afternoon tracking toys…

Have a good one and take care.

46 Comments

Time posted: 2:19 am

Tracking The Snow Chances

Good Tuesday, everyone. Periods of light snow continue to settle into the region today and will carry us into Wednesday. This should bring some light accumulations to many areas, with another light snow maker lurking for later in the week. It’s once into the weekend that a much bigger storm system has a chance to impact our weather.

The rounds of light snow and snow showers today through early Wednesday may have some overachieving bands, especially across the eastern half of the state. Much of the light sticking snow waits until after dark to kick in. Here’s a rough outline of the light snowfall potential…

Many areas will be getting in on a coating to 1″, with some of those overachieving snow streaks showing up in the outlined areas.

The models are going in this direction…

Hi Res NAM

NAMCanadian

A few slick spots are a good bet later tonight and early Wednesday. This may cause a few delays or cancellations.

The next system arrives late Thursday and looks fairly light. It should be in the form of a rain/snow mix, with a period of light snow setting up for some…

That brings us to the rather complicated setup for a developing winter storm that may impact our region this coming weekend into early next week. Regular readers know I’ve been tracking this storm signal for well over a week now and it continues to strongly show up. The devil is, as always, in the details.

As I’ve mentioned, it’s going to be another day or two before  we see the models get a firm grip on how to handle this storm system ejecting out of the southwest. That rolls from west to east across the deep south, but has an inverted trough into our region. That storm then tries to turn the corner and may actually slow down in doing so.

The exact track of this low is crucial to how much snow we can get around here. Some models absolutely crush areas of the state, while others show a lighter brand of snow and even some ice.

The new version of the GFS has been the steadiest of the models over the past few days. It has had a very consistent track and evolution…

You can see how the model keeps that second little system spinning over our region, keeping snow going into early next week. That has been something showing up more and more and has my attention.

While the European Model is still having some feedback issues, notice how it also keeps that second system going into early next week…

Both of those models have some insane snow totals showing up because of that slow moving system on top of us. Of course… That does not mean they are right! I’m just breaking down the models for you guys. 😉

The current version of the GFS is still playing catch up with the rest of the models with the whole evolution and track…

The south and east bias of the model continues to be in full effect.

The Canadian Model doesn’t bother with the second system and, instead, brings this whole thing out and bombs it out up the east coast…

The average snowfall from the 21 member GFS Ensembles has a healthy swath from west to east across the state…

At this point, it’s going to be awfully difficult to keep Kentucky from seeing some kind of snow impact from this winter storm. Will it be a small event or a big event where you live? That’s a question I cannot answer at this moment, but I suspect I will have a better idea later today.

If you’re a winter weather love… Wow is about all you can say. We’ve already had 14 days with winter precipitation and it’s only December 4th. Also, it may snow somewhere in Kentucky on each of the next 7 days. Yowza.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, let’s track todays snow showers and light snows…

Enjoy the day and take care.

34 Comments