Daily Archives: December 5, 2018

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s another cold night ahead for the bluegrass state as we focus on additional rounds of winter weather. The next system rolling in is rather light, but the one behind it has the chance to become a full blown winter storm for our region.

I have no changes on the overall theme of the forecast going forward. A touch of mix and snow moves in Thursday evening into the wee hours of Friday. That may put down some very light accumulations. during this time.

Let’s get to the portion of the program everyone is interested in and that’s the weekend potential winter storm. The time frame we are working is from Late Saturday through Monday. I’ve adjusted the potential map from earlier…

The area in red is there just because that’s where my confidence is highest at the moment. I do expect a full swath of winter weather from west to east across the state, but that’s the area with the absolute best chance of getting in on full blown winter storm material.

Let’s check on the computer models to see what they have to say. The European isn’t as far north as last night’s run, but has that west-east band of snow and some mix…

The average of the 51 member European Ensembles is farther north with the axis of snow…

The new version of the GFS is also a little farther northwest with the axis of snow, especially with the second system spinning Sunday and Monday…

That’s also a crushing hit for parts of the southeast.

The regular GFS is trying, but the progressive bias of the model continues to show…

A likely upgrade to Threat mode is on the way tonight. I’ll see you then. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 12:41 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. Rounds of light snow and snow showers continue to weaken across the region this afternoon. Several areas got in on some overachieving snow showers and snow squalls, and that’s been the theme of the young winter, so far. It’s a pattern that takes every opportunity to produce winter weather around here.

That trend continues through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The weekend is when things get interesting as a winter storm takes aim at the region. I will get to that in a moment.

Let’s begin with the current rounds of snow showers slowly winding down…

The next light snow maker rolls in quickly from the northwest Thursday evening into Thursday night…

That can lay down an inch or less of snow, leading to the potential for a few more delays and cancellations for Friday.

This takes us to the weekend winter storm potential that isn’t very far away from reaching THREAT status here on KWC. My thoughts remain pretty much unchanged from what I’ve been sharing with you over the past several days. I’ll leave this running for the time being…

I will make some adjustments to that on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm today.

In terms of the model trends, most are about where you would expect them from 3-4 days away from an event starting. The GFS is much better than the past few days, but still has too much of a progressive bias…

That still delivers a healthy hit of winter weather to the state.

The Canadian is more robust with that winter storm hit…

The new version of the GFS is more similar to the Canadian that it’s soon to be defunct brother…

The latest average from the GFS Ensembles show a wide swath across the state, with a smackdown across the eastern half of the state…

Some quick thoughts:

  • Confidence of a winter storm impact is increasing.
  • The details of this impact, such as locations and amounts, are still not known.
  • All forms of winter precipitation are on the table for this possible storm system.

I will have another update this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:24 am

Watching The Weekend Winter Storm Potential

Good Wednesday, folks. A light snowfall is greeting many areas of the bluegrass state to start the day and that’s creating some slick spots on area roads. From here, it’s time to start putting all our attention into the weekend winter storm potential that is increasing a bit.

Let me begin with the rounds of light snow working across Kentucky early today. This is putting down light accumulations from a coating to 1″ in most areas. Local 1″-2″ amounts may show up in some of the heavier streaks, but those are rather localized.

Here’s a look at the Winter Weather Advisory to start the day…

Another weak system dives in here late Thursday into Thursday night. This should have a band of light snow with it, and some light accumulations are possible…

As far as the winter storm potential is concerned for the weekend and early next week, with each passing day, confidence increases of some kind of impact on our weather. If you’re a regular reader, this is a storm signal we have been talking about on the blog for more than a week already. The signal is the easy part… pinpointing the details is the hard part.

Let’s begin with the area of greatest potential. This is a map I put together for WKYT before the latest computer model runs…

That’s a rough outline that will be adjusted several times in the coming days.

As expected, the latest models are beginning to shake off their respective biases and are coming more into line with one another. The European Model is ridding itself of the convective feedback issues and is now showing a farther north and west storm system with a big hit on our region…

That’s a slow-moving storm system that would last from Saturday through early Tuesday. The end result…

The average snow map from the GFS Ensembles has been hinting at a more widespread and farther north solution for days now. The latest run is no different…

The most consistent operational model has been the new version of the GFS. It has had this similar solution for days now with very few hiccups…

The GFS is finally coming around to this same look…

The Canadian has it too…

What is the takeaway from where we are right now? It’s looking more and more likely that a winter storm will have an impact on Kentucky’s weather. The extent of that impact remains to be seen and I’m still not sure where that greatest impact winds up. That’s going to be my focus of the next few days.

I will have updates later today and can hopefully get a little more specific with this weekend system. In the meantime, here are your tracking toys to start the day…

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

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Louisville

No image available.

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E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

Enjoy the day and take care.

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