Daily Archives: December 5, 2018

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. It’s another cold night ahead for the bluegrass state as we focus on additional rounds of winter weather. The next system rolling in is rather light, but the one behind it has the chance to become a full blown winter storm for our region.

I have no changes on the overall theme of the forecast going forward. A touch of mix and snow moves in Thursday evening into the wee hours of Friday. That may put down some very light accumulations. during this time.

Let’s get to the portion of the program everyone is interested in and that’s the weekend potential winter storm. The time frame we are working is from Late Saturday through Monday. I’ve adjusted the potential map from earlier…

The area in red is there just because that’s where my confidence is highest at the moment. I do expect a full swath of winter weather from west to east across the state, but that’s the area with the absolute best chance of getting in on full blown winter storm material.

Let’s check on the computer models to see what they have to say. The European isn’t as far north as last night’s run, but has that west-east band of snow and some mix…

The average of the 51 member European Ensembles is farther north with the axis of snow…

The new version of the GFS is also a little farther northwest with the axis of snow, especially with the second system spinning Sunday and Monday…

That’s also a crushing hit for parts of the southeast.

The regular GFS is trying, but the progressive bias of the model continues to show…

A likely upgrade to Threat mode is on the way tonight. I’ll see you then. Make it a good one and take care.

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