Daily Archives: December 6, 2018

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Winter Storm Threat South and Southeast

Good Evening, folks. As we get closer to the weekend, our winter storm system starts to come into a little better focus. I’m going to go ahead and switch to a Winter Storm THREAT for areas of southern and southeastern Kentucky.

A THREAT means there is the increased potential for significant snow (4″+) or ice accumulations. If I become more confident in this outcome, we will shift to ALERT mode. If confidence goes the other way, we similar track whatever is leftover.

Here’s a look at the greatest threat area…

The area in red is the prime area to be impacted by snow and freezing rain. I’m going to be honest… I’m still nervous this thing will wind up being a bit farther north. Maybe that’s because of past events, but it’s something I’m wrestlin’ with.

Keep in mind, those risk area lines can creep farther north or sink toward the south. This is still not set in stone. (Dink! ;))

The WPC is highlighting a similar area for  the potential of 4″+ snows…

 

The latest run of the NAM shows a healthy swath of freezing rain and snow across southern and southeastern Kentucky. This only goes through Sunday evening…

Here’s the snow map from that run…

The freezing rain forecast from that same run…

The new version of the GFS continues to be the most widespread with the snow potential…

The European model is a little farther north and west than earlier runs, and is still putting down a lot of wet snow in the southeast. Check out the amazing snow gradient on this run…

The regular version of the GFS is similar, but appears to still be having some temperature issues…

I will have an updated map for you on WKYT-TV at 11 and then here on the blog later tonight.

By the way… The next forecasting headache is lurking in the week ahead…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:44 pm

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, folks. My time is rather limited for this update, but I’m gonna get as much information into this post as I possible can. Obviously, it’s all eyes on the weekend and a potential winter storm impacting the bluegrass state.

This system moves in late Saturday through Sunday and Monday, but the exact areas of impact and extent of those impacts are still in question. More on that in a moment.

We have a cold front dropping in tonight and it will have a band of light snow along and behind the front. Some very light accumulations are possible overnight for some areas. Here’s the radar…

I had hoped to have a better handle on the weekend winter storm potential, but I’m still doing a balancing act based on some big model disagreement.

Half of this storm system is now within the range of the NAM. The model only goes through early Sunday evening, but has the evolution of this storm being similar to what most models had been suggesting until the past few days…

That run of the NAM has a mega cutoff to accumulating snow on the north side, but puts a smackdown across the southern half of the state…

The new version of the GFS is getting back to what it had been showing up until recently and is very close to the NAM…

The average of the 21 members of the GFS Ensembles continue to hammer southeastern Kentucky with snow, but is also farther north and west than the current operational GFS…

The operation GFS, which is about to be replaced by the new version, isn’t too dissimilar to the above models, but it’s having issues with the thermal profile across the state. It’s really the only model showing a ton of freezing rain…

The temps on the GFS are whacky.

The Canadian Model is the farthest southeast of the entire model suite, but still manages to put down a lot of snow in southeastern Kentucky.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will throw you another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:11 am

A Model Fight Brewing For The Weekend

Good Thursday, folks. As we inch closer to the weekend and a possible winter storm impact, I was hoping for a little more help from the computer forecast models. Sadly, that’s not the case. The overnight runs are giving us the biggest model fight of the event, so far.

Given the little fight going on, I want  to see a few runs today before possibly upgrading to a Winter Storm THREAT.

I’ll get to that storm in a moment, but we have another burst of light snow to track before it arrives.

A weak front drops in from northwest to southeast this evening and should produce a band of mixed showers of rain and snow that go over to light snow as it moves across the state…

Some light accumulations are possible in a few spots.

In terms of the weekend winter storm potential, we still have a lot of questions to be answered and details to be ironed out. Nothing is set in stone and may not be for another day or so. Given all that, I will keep this map going for the time being…

The GFS matches up pretty well with that…

Here’s the snapshot of that model run for snowfall…

Freezing rain forecast from that particular run…

The Canadian Model is a smidge farther south, but is also similar…

Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

The new version of the GFS had been super consistent in how it was handling this storm system. The latest run took a little stroll to the south…

The European Model also took a south stroll, but it really looks to be having some big issues again…

The Euro has been the most inconsistent of all the models to this point and that’s sad to see.

When we find operational models in disagreement, it’s always good to look at the Ensembles. They are made up of many different runs that show an average. The GFS Ensembles are holding serve from what they had earlier…

Here are the 21 individual ensemble members that make up the average you see above…

You can see the majority of those members have a fairly solid west to east swath of snow across the state. Only a couple do not.

I will be back with your midday update and hopefully some better clarity on this potential. 🙂

Make it a good one and take care.

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