Daily Archives: December 7, 2018

Time posted: 7:31 pm

Friday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. We’ve made it to the weekend and we continue to watch our developing winter storm taking aim at parts of Kentucky. This continues to look like it has the best chance of impacting southern and southeastern Kentucky.

The Winter Storm THREAT continues for these areas…

Freezing rain and snow has the best chance of targeting these areas compared to anywhere else. It’s the same setup as we have been talking about for a while now, where the farther north and west you live, the lower the chance of seeing much at all.

The short range Canadian continues to try and change that. It has the freezing rain and snow much farther north than anything else…

The new version of the GFS is now similar with that…

Here are the areas getting snow and freezing rain on that model run… 

The afternoon run of the NAM changed course from the earlier run that had nothing hitting Kentucky. Here’s the area it shows across the southeast for snow and freezing rain…

The Hi Res NAM  is similar, but shows a better breakdown between snow and freezing rain…

Snow

Freezing rain 

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV at 11 tonight and that should include a first call map. I’ll also have the latest on KWC later tonight. Enjoy and take care.

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Time posted: 12:31 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Let me begin by saying I have no substantial changes to my thoughts from the past few days. The Winter Storm THREAT continues for southern and southeastern Kentucky, as the models keep bouncing around. When that happens, I’ve found it’s best not to get caught up in knee jerk reactions and stay the course. That’s where I am, right now. Will that change later today? Maybe so.

The low is just now beginning to form, so it makes sense the models are still struggling with everything. Let this storm develop and then we will see what the late afternoon and evening models have to say about this thing.

Let’s star with the new version of the GFS. It jumped ship with the storm with the 6z run, but is back on board with the very next run this morning. It still targets the south and southeast…

Here’s where the snow and ice show up on that particular run…

The Hi Res NAM is targeting some of the same areas of the south and southeast…

The Canadian Model family had been a miss for Kentucky. The latest runs are now the farthest north and west of the bunch. Here’s the short range Canadian that only goes through daybreak Sunday…

That takes the snow and ice along and north of Interstate 64.

The regular version of the Canadian is similar…

The snow forecast from that model looks like what had been showing up on most models the past few days, with a sharp gradient between no snow and heavy snow…

The UKMET is actually pretty far north with the precipitation shield into Kentucky…

This brings us to the NAM and GFS. Both models only offer a glancing blow to the southeastern corner of the state…

NAM

GFS

Here’s what this boils down to…. It’s all about how strong the high pressure is across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. The stronger that high is, the better the chance it pushes much of this system to our south and southeast. The weaker that high, the better opportunity we have for this storm to move more to the north.

In looking at the temps across the region as of this writing, the NAM and GFS may be too strong with that high as the numbers are outpacing the model forecasts.

Let’s see what the afternoon and evening models have to say, then we can talk more. Until then, this ain’t my first rodeo in dealing with a setup like this. History tells me to stay the course.

I will have updates on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and here on KWC later in the evening. Make it a great one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:19 am

Winter Storm Threat Continues For The Southeast

Good Friday, folks. As we head into the weekend, the winter storm potential is still as clear as mud. The models continue to fight more than a family arguing politics at the dinner table… And that’s saying something. Given this battle, I’m not making any changes to the Winter Storm Threat to areas of the south and southeast.

This system hasn’t even formed yet, so the models are still struggling with how to put all the storm ingredients together.

The two heavy hitters in the modeling world are the GFS and the European Models. They are giving only far southern and southeastern Kentucky some snow action, and it’s much lighter than the other models. You can see this well on the GFS…

As of this writing, it’s those two models against the rest of the modelling world. The NAM continues to be north and west with the snow and freezing rain shield…

That particular run put a hurting on southeastern Kentucky…

The Hi-Res NAM only goes through daybreak Sunday, but is even farther north and west with the storm system…

Here’s the snow forecast from that same run…

Both of the NAM models are spitting out some freezing rain accumulations, too.

The new version of the GFS is more similar to the NAM fam than it is to the GFS and Euro Duo…

The Canadian Model has a similar scenario…

A few notes to consider:

  • This system isn’t slated to impact the region until Saturday night and Sunday, so we still have plenty of model runs to go through.
  • I’m hopeful we can get a little better consensus  with the 12z model runs, but, given all the players on the weather field, that may still be pushing it.
  • The farther south and southeast you live, the greater the risk of this storm impacting you.
  • I will have a first call map later today, for wherever this storm ultimately decides to go.
  • It’s pretty cool to have a storm come from a signal I first picked up on nearly 2 weeks ago here on KWC.

Speaking of storm signals, I’ve already been laying the ground work for the next one to potentially impact our region…

I will have your regular updates later today, so check back. Make it a great Friday and take care.

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