Daily Archives: December 9, 2018
Time posted: 8:50 pm
Good evening, folks. Sorry for the late update, but your friendly weatherdude had to squeeze in a little nap and do some grocery shopping. 🙂 I wanted to drop by to update where this pattern goes as we inch closer and closer to Christmas.
Our winter storm continues to push east but the upper level low is going to try and spin up one more round of light snow tonight and Monday morning across parts of the far southeast and far south central parts of the state…
As temps drop well below freezing tonight, watch for slick spots to develop on area roads in the south and southeast. Many school systems have already called off for tomorrow, marking the 4th snow day already for some districts. 18 days of snow already this season and it’s only December 9th. There have been full winters that didn’t feature hat many days with some snow flying. 😉
A seasonal brand of cold is with us to start the week, with a big system lurking for the end of the week. Sandwiched in between is a sneaky little system that may try to bring rain and snow in here at some point Wednesday…
That’s the European Model and that action is on the leading edge of some milder air pushing in ahead of the big rain and wind maker late Thursday through Saturday. This comes via a monster upper level low that will likely spin overhead. This is a setup that has the potential to go from thunderstorms to snowflakes…
The overall pattern for the week ahead SHOULD be very mild, given the setup across North America. One way you know when you’re in for a good winter is when cold still finds a way to show up in these types of patterns, like what we are seeing on the above maps.
Things remain super active into the following week as mild air starts to get pushed around. Watch how the Ensembles go toward a deepening trough during this time…
See those higher heights starting to pop around Alaska toward the North Pole? That blocking then tries to really get established Christmas week. Look at that thumb ridge going up in those same areas in the days leading up to Christmas…
If you want the potential for a white Christmas, you want a hemispheric pattern similar to the one above.
Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.
Time posted: 1:00 pm
Good afternoon, everyone. Our winter storm continues across parts of southern and eastern Kentucky. This has been one of the weirdest storms in terms of precipitation types and locations. Where do we go from here? I will get to that in a bit.
Let’s talk a little more about the current storm. Overall, I’m pleased with how it played out in terms of the forecast. This was a storm everyone had totally written off as missing Kentucky, but I held on and Old Man Winter did the rest. As we talked about on here, this system came much farther north and west that the models were suggesting, with wintry weather into the bluegrass region and into northeastern Kentucky. This thing basically fit right into the geographical area we forecast.
The freezing rain forecast was a good one as this basically turned into an ice storm for some areas of south central Kentucky. Power lines and trees have been taken down, leading to power outages.
The snow is going strong in the southeast, but had a total bust zone around and south of London because a bubble of warm air stayed put this morning. That’s such a small scale bubble that it’s hard for man or computer to see until it’s actually happening. If we had balloon launches on the hour, every hour from every city in the region, maybe that would help, but that’s obviously not realistic. Still, it sucks for those folks in that area wanting snow. I feel ya!
As the main storm pulls away this afternoon, far southeastern Kentucky has a chance at getting in on another band of light snow and light freezing rain later tonight and early Monday. That has a chance to clip some of the area in the snow bust zone from earlier today. That may help out some and I may even have to make a map for it.
After a cold start to the week ahead, temps mild up for the middle of the week as a powerhouse of a storm rolls our way from Thursday through Saturday. This is a big rain and wind maker and may produce a few thunderstorms ahead of it and snowflakes behind it…
The following week will have another bumpy ride with a temp surge and temp drop with another storm system moving in. The pattern leading up to Christmas and into Christmas week has a chance to turn special across the country. Arctic air gets back into the pattern with an active storm track…
I will update things later today. For now, here are your tracking toys for the rest of this winter storm…
Kentucky/Tennessee border on I-65
Mountain Parkway near Slade
Make it a good one and take care.
Time posted: 2:03 am
Good morning, again. Your friendly weatherdude is still going strong… For now. 🙂
Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded into parts of the bluegrass region. Madison and Garrard Counties now in this. That sleet and freezing line did in fact get into the bluegrass region as I suspected.
The snow is going strong now in many areas of southeastern Kentucky. A comma head of snow is developing and will go through the afternoon. Areas under that will get in on heavy snow. Outside of that… precip types bounce back and forth.
The amount of ice from this storm has been impressive for many areas. Freezing rain is slowly winding down, but power outages and some tree limbs are coming down.
I will post a full update later today. That might wait until after a nap. 😉
The transition to snow is fully underway across the southeastern part of the state with accumulations already showing up pretty quickly. Areas that stay snow will have some pretty good totals, especially the area we’ve been targeting along the Virginia border.
Some sleet is in fact getting as far north as the bluegrass region of central Kentucky. Chalk one up for the good guys. 🙂
I will try to update more, but no in more than 24 hours is making me loopy… Not that I needed much help.
Good morning… Again. We are starting to get reports of the change to snow now taking place in several areas of southeastern Kentucky. Can if fully make the transition to all snow or stay as a mixed bag? Obviously, we’ve told you the longer it takes to change, the less snow you get. That’s almost a duh statement, but it’s a true one nonetheless.
BTW… some of those ice pics coming out of the London area are WOW. Those are on my twitter feed.
The timing on the switch to snow in the southeast has always been around daybreak or just after. Hi Res Models targeting between 8 and 10 for the switch in most places. We definitely don’t want the freezing rain to continue.
Let’s see how all this places out as we get into this time frame.
Have I mentioned I hate this storm? 🙂
Good morning, folks. Freezing rain continues to hold tough across south central and southeastern Kentucky. As mentioned, the longer it takes to make that switch to snow, the lower those snow numbers go. Of course, that just means the better the chance for icing issues on trees and power lines.
As the low wraps up to the southeast of Kentucky, the switch to snow should still occur, but it better get cracking if it wants to put much down.
Good Sunday, everyone. A winter storm is working from west to east across the southern half of the state today. This is bringing a nasty mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain and is causing travel issues in many areas of the south and southeast.
I don’t have a lot to add at this point, but here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Snow totals are dependent on how quickly any one area changes from freezing rain and sleet to snow. The quicker the change this morning, the more snow you get. If that change is slower… You know the drill.
- Areas of freezing rain will cause issues across south central Kentucky, especially. A few power hits or tree damage may show up.
- Southeastern parts of the state will see the majority of the actual snow. Much of that starts to fall around daybreak then continues through the afternoon. Several inches of heavy wet snow is possible for many areas. Totals may range from an inch or two to as much as 7 or 8 inches. I can’t rule out some double digit amounts in the higher mountains. If that happens, power issues show up.
- The snow totals trail off VERY quickly to the north and northwest.
- I’m still not convinced some wintry precipitation can’t find it’s way into the parts of the bluegrass region into northeastern Kentucky. If it doesn’t, it will be a close call.
- Southeastern Kentucky may get a renewed batch of light snow Sunday night into early Monday.
I may add additional thoughts to this blog post on occasion tonight, so check back.
Here are your tracking toys, keep in mind the actual colors on the radar won’t always match up to the actual precipitation falling…
Kentucky/Tennessee border on I-65
Mountain Parkway near Slade
Have a good one and take care.