Daily Archives: December 11, 2018

Time posted: 12:31 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. Your friendly weatherdude is on the road today, but is still finding the time to drop by for a quick update. It’s calm and quiet for another day or so, then a big storm system moves our way for the end of the week into the start of the weekend.

That system shows up differently on the all the models because we are dealing with a big upper level low. That system will fire up a lot of wind and rain for our region, with the chance for some wraparound flakes on Saturday. The flake thing isn’t a big possibility as of now, but it’s something to watch for.

Watch how the models differ on how they handle this upper low and surface storm system.

GFS

The GFS isn’t nearly as strong with the surface low as a few of the other models. The end result is a lot of rain and zero snows anywhere…

Contrast that with a much stronger and farther north low from the Canadian…

Notice how the heaviest rains are a bit north and west, but check out the snows…

My thoughts are probably much closer to the GFS, but the chance for a stronger system like the Canadian cannot be ruled out. As I’ve said, these strong upper lows have a mind of their own.

This continues to be a milder overall pattern into next week, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get cold shots and snow chances. That said, the main change back to the colder than normal pattern shows up in the days leading up to Christmas and into Christmas week. LOOK OUT BELOW…

I will try to update this evening, but no promises. 🙂

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Tracking A Late Week Wind and Rain Maker

Good Tuesday, everyone. Calm weather continues… And that’s music to the ears of your friendly weatherdude. 🙂 Now, later this week, it’s a different story. Another potent storm system (drink) moves into the region, bringing a lot of wind and rain. It even has the chance to produce a rumble of thunder and a few flakes.

Between now and then, things look good with temps in the 40s today and Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds will thicken on Thursday as winds gust up ahead of our deepening low. This low is in response to a significant upper level low that SLOWLY meanders across the region from Thursday night through Saturday.

This generally means a lot of wind and rain for our neck of the woods. Depending on where that upper low passes on Saturday, a few flakes are possible in our region. As is typical, the models handle that feature very differently.

The GFS brings this system on top of us, with rain and wind the main player. It still brings another system behind that one, with some flakes with it by late Sunday and Monday…

The new version of the GFS is much farther south with the low, but still has a lot of rain and wind…

The Canadian continues to bring this much farther north and is stronger than most guidance. In turn, it shows the best chance for wraparound snows on Saturday…

Those strong upper lows kinda do their own thing because they are cut off from the main jet stream.

Looking down the road, blocking continues to show back up late next week into the following week… Christmas week. Notice the massive block forming near Alaska and how it forces the trough to dig into the country…

That’s supplies the cold, but you can also see what should be an active southern storm track. If you want some snow for Christmas or around that time, you would like to see those two hook up.

I will have your usual updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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