Daily Archives: December 12, 2018

Time posted: 7:30 pm

Midweek Thoughts

Good evening, folks. Clouds are rolling in ahead of a potent storm system ready to roll into the region with heavy rain and gusty winds. This comes courtesy of a big upper level low slowly spinning in an overall milder pattern that lass into next week. Once there, winter continues to show big signs of coming back.

A shower or two will develop ahead of this system later this evening into tonight…

We’ve talked about this big upper low moving in, and you can see what I’m talking about in this animation…

There’s nothing to push it along, so it has a mind of its own and meanders through here. That leads to a lot of ugly weather taking shape from later Thursday through Saturday. Rounds of rain and rumbles of thunder will be common, and some hefty totals should show up. 1″-2″ amounts may be noted…

GFS

Canadian

Winds will be gusty during this time as temps hang around or just above average. A seasonal chill moves in behind that, but temps quickly moderate next week.

As we have been talking about, changes begin to show up late next week into the weekend before Christmas. A couple of system dive in from the northwest, but they don’t have a ton of cold air with them. Here’s the Canadian for the end of next week…

The European is similar..

It has the next system quickly following by the weekend…

The setup for Christmas week continues to favor deepening troughs swinging into the country as blocking starts to go up near Alaska and toward the North Pole. The Ensembles have been showing this for a while and now the operational models are going in that direction…

Enjoy your evening and take care.

6 Comments

Time posted: 2:28 am

Some Ugly Weather Ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. Here’s hoping this update finds each of you living and loving life to the fullest. It’s another pretty nice day across the region and you should get out and take advantage of it… We have another round of ugly on the way.

Temps today are in the mid and upper 40s for many, which is actually fairly typical for this time of year. A few readings may hit the 50 degree mark. Clouds will increase and I can’t rule out a shower at some point this evening or tonight.

Thursday begins to bring some of the ugly stuff with clouds thickening, with the chance for a shower. This action will REALLY increase Thursday night and Friday as a huge upper level low slowly rolls across the region. That spawns a strong surface low that will aid in bringing a lot of rain, wind and some thunder our way.

The Canadian had finally joined in on the real world party with this low…

This now matches up with what the GFS has been cooking for several days now…

Heavy rainfall of 1″+ is possible during this time…

The pattern after that is seasonally chilly, with temps going back into the above normal range for a few days next week. From there, we find the pattern quickly reverting back to the cold setup we’ve been in since late October. The Euro kicks it off with a couple of clippers diving in late next week…

For a better picture of how the northern hemispheric pattern is changing, check out the GFS Ensembles late next week into Christmas weekend…

You can see how we start to seeing the heights lowering across the country, with rising heights across Canada and up into Alaska. That’s still not a super cold pattern, but that changes into Christmas week. Notice the changes in North America…

Not a bad look at all for the big Christmas week!

I’ll update again later today. Make it a good one and take care.

20 Comments