Daily Archives: December 13, 2018

Time posted: 7:31 pm

Thursday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. It’s a very quiet evening, but things are about to turn active as we head into the weekend. Rounds of rain and rumbles of thunder are on the way. This continues to be part of an overall milder setup through next week, but changes are brewing for late next week.

Heavy rains are possible through Saturday night…

Here are your radars to follow the rain closer to the state…

Milder air hangs through much of next week, but a cold front tries to crash the party by Thursday and Friday. The Euro has been hinting at this for a while and now the GFS is jumping on this…

That introduces a much colder setup that can throw snow chances our way into Christmas week. The models continue to see the chance for snow Christmas Eve and Day…

Soooooo… You’re telling me there’s a chance? 🙂

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:21 pm

Thursday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. In what has been the theme of 2018… Another big rain maker is rumbling into the bluegrass state and will carry us through the coming weekend. As we look into the longer range, we see Old Man Winter plotting his return in the days leading up to Christmas.

This big upper level helping create the waves of rain is a slow-mover and that means ugly weather through Sunday. Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ will be possible during this time, with a few spots coming in with the over. The Hi Res NAM only goes through Saturday, but has a few 2″-3″ spots in central Kentucky…

That model is picking up on a few areas of thunderstorms, so you will see more of the “hotspots” of rain. The GFS is more of a smooth average without storms…

The pattern after that continues to skew mild through the middle of next week. A system dives in by the end of the week to change that, but the real change happens next weekend into Christmas week. A trough deepens across the country, allowing much colder air to come back in. Combine that with an active storm track and you have the chance for some of the white stuff on, or around, the big day.

Check out the new version of the GFS and all the systems it is tracking…

It’s a rather interesting look for the big day and week surrounding it. Keep dreaming and maybe it will become a reality. Don’t forget, it did snow lightly last year on Christmas Eve and Christmas Morning. 🙂

I will have another update later today, so y’all come back now. Ya hear?

Take care.

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Time posted: 1:55 am

Upper Level Low Means Heavy Rain Ahead

Good Thursday, folks. Give this is the already the wettest year on record for many areas, this isn’t a surprise, but another big rain maker is rolling in. Heavy rain, thunder and gusty winds are all on tap for the next few days, courtesy of a slow-moving upper level low moving through here. Get ready for some ugly.

This upper low has been well talked about on here for a while now, so you’ve had plenty of heads up on the ugly ahead. Check out this spin that has nothing to carry it along…

Gusty showers will be noted today, especially across the western half of the state…

Rounds of rain and some thunder will really kick in tonight and carry us through Saturday night. Heavy rainfall is a likely and it may cause some quick rises on area creeks and streams. 1″-2″ rain numbers are possible during this time…

A seasonal chill follows that, but the setup continues to run milder than normal into next week. All that starts to change by later next week into the weekend before Christmas. This brings colder air back in here and may supply some moisture in the process. This could work out to bring some snow into our region in the leadup to the big day…

The Ensembles have been showing a favorable pattern for a while and now the operational models are starting to like the winter chances around Christmas Eve and Day…

It’s all about trends and pattern recognition from this distance, so don’t get too attached to any one run. 😉

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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