Daily Archives: December 17, 2018

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Monday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. I gotta admit… Today’s weather was awfully nice. It’s so nice, I’m gonna throw another one your way for Tuesday. Soak it up because another massive storm system will impact our region later this week into the start of that long holiday weekend.

Before we take a look at the latest models, let me recap my thoughts:

  • The timeline on this storm is Thursday through early Saturday
  • This storm system is massive in coverage and may impact every state east of the Mississippi River
  • Rain and wind are likely across Kentucky Thursday into the first half of Friday.
  • Rainfall amounts of 1″-3″ appear to be a good bet, especially across central and eastern Kentucky. This may cause flooding issues to develop.
  • Colder air may get pulled in behind the departing low, setting up a band of rain and snow that ends as snow late Friday through Saturday morning. I continue to be a little more optimistic of this potential, especially across the eastern half of the state.

The European Model is able to tap just a little more cold air than it’s earlier runs…

The average of the 51 member European Ensembles has a little bit of snow, too…

The ICON is very similar…

The GFS decided to not tap as much cold air…

The new version of the GFS is a little more robust with the wraparound snow potential…

Again, the mix and snow potential on the wraparound isn’t a given. The heavy rain threat is pretty well set, with enough to cause some flooding issues in the eastern half of the state…

The next system zips in late Sunday into early Christmas Eve Day and may bring a period of light rain and light snow…

Another system tries to move in here late Christmas Day…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:19 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. The sun is FINALLY back for much of the bluegrass state, but it’s all eyes on another big time storm system moving our way later this week. This one brings a lot of rain and wind to the region, with the potential for some backlash snows as it moves by.

  • The timeline on this storm is Thursday through early Saturday
  • This storm system is massive in coverage and may impact every state east of the Mississippi River
  • Rain and wind are likely across Kentucky Thursday into the first half of Friday.
  • Rainfall amounts of 1″-3″ appear to be a good bet, especially across central and eastern Kentucky. This may cause flooding issues to develop.
  • Colder air may get pulled in behind the departing low, setting up a band of rain and snow that ends as snow late Friday through Saturday morning. I’m not totally sold on this possibility, but I like the chances a little more than I did yesterday.

Let’s check on the latest computer models to see what they are offering up. The GFS is similar to prior runs and does show some wraparound snows before this system moves away…

These rain totals would be enough to cause some, at least, local high water issues again…

The Canadian Model is finally consolidating the lows into one main storm. In turn, it’s seeing the wrap around snow potential…

The Icon is similar to the above models…

I’ll hook you up with an evening update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:21 am

Watching The End Of The Week

Good Monday, everyone. We a little more than a week away from Christmas and it’s all eyes on another potent storm system later this week. That system will kick off the looooong holiday weekend and will bring a lot of ugly weather to millions of folks across the eastern half of the country.

I will get to that storm in a bit. First, let’s talk a little about what’s going on to begin the week. Low clouds, dense fog and some drizzle may be noted early today. That may have a tough time burning off across parts of the region. This may do a number on temps compared to areas of the west seeing sun.

A similar setup will be with us on Tuesday, with Wednesday looking to be the best day of the week.

Our late week storm system is on track to impact a HUGE chunk of real estate from Thursday through Saturday. This will be a player in every state east of the Mississippi River.

My thoughts on this storm remain the same:

  • Rain and wind are likely with this system, especially Thursday and early Friday
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″  with locally higher amounts show up. Local high water issues may develop
  • Wraparound snows are very POSSIBLE with such a big storm system, but that’s not a given. It all depends on how much cold air can dive in behind this storm

Let’s get a check of the models to see where they currently stand.

GFS

That run puts down local 3″ rains across the southeast…

The Canadian Model is very wound up and is starting to see a little more cold air on the backside…

That model is also putting down some hefty rains…

The European Model is a little colder than earlier runs with the wraparound potential…

The ICON Model has a couple different lows popping and has the best wraparound snow potential…

Again, that is truly a massive storm system! But the one key ingredient missing for snow lovers is a true cold high to the northwest. Still, the shear strength of the storm may be able to pull down just enough cold air for some wraparound action.

Looking toward Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, there’s a weaker system working toward the region. The Canadian…

The European Model…

So far, this November and December aren’t too dissimilar to 2002 and 2014, with a weaker case being made for 1977. All three of those years factored into the winter forecast I put out back in early November.

Updates come your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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