Daily Archives: December 17, 2018

Time posted: 7:33 pm

Monday Evening Thoughts

Good evening, everyone. I gotta admit… Today’s weather was awfully nice. It’s so nice, I’m gonna throw another one your way for Tuesday. Soak it up because another massive storm system will impact our region later this week into the start of that long holiday weekend.

Before we take a look at the latest models, let me recap my thoughts:

  • The timeline on this storm is Thursday through early Saturday
  • This storm system is massive in coverage and may impact every state east of the Mississippi River
  • Rain and wind are likely across Kentucky Thursday into the first half of Friday.
  • Rainfall amounts of 1″-3″ appear to be a good bet, especially across central and eastern Kentucky. This may cause flooding issues to develop.
  • Colder air may get pulled in behind the departing low, setting up a band of rain and snow that ends as snow late Friday through Saturday morning. I continue to be a little more optimistic of this potential, especially across the eastern half of the state.

The European Model is able to tap just a little more cold air than it’s earlier runs…

The average of the 51 member European Ensembles has a little bit of snow, too…

The ICON is very similar…

The GFS decided to not tap as much cold air…

The new version of the GFS is a little more robust with the wraparound snow potential…

Again, the mix and snow potential on the wraparound isn’t a given. The heavy rain threat is pretty well set, with enough to cause some flooding issues in the eastern half of the state…

The next system zips in late Sunday into early Christmas Eve Day and may bring a period of light rain and light snow…

Another system tries to move in here late Christmas Day…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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