Daily Archives: December 18, 2018

Time posted: 7:35 pm

End Of The Week Storm Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s all eyes on the late week storm system that’s set to impact millions of people as they begin the long Christmas travel period. That storm will then have a couple of lighter systems following it for the rest of the Christmas travel period.

My thoughts remain the same, but let’s make them a little fresher:

  • This low pressure will impact every state east of the Mississippi River from Thursday through Saturday.
  • Rounds of heavy rain move into the bluegrass state late Wednesday night and early Thursday.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across the eastern half of the state. That may be enough to cause some local high water issues.
  • Winds may gust to 35mph at times Thursday night through Friday night.
  • Cold air wraps in behind this system on Friday, bringing a mix of rain and snow then a period of wet snow. The best chance of that is across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Some light accumulations are POSSIBLE.

The new European Model is similar with the switch to wet snow late Friday into Friday night…

The latest GFS is also much more enthusiastic about the switch to snow from west to east…

That’s actually not a bad look for some pretty good wet snows falling for a period. Can it stick with the wet ground? We shall see.

Another weak system moves through on Sunday and may produce some light snows or a mix for some…

Another system then tries to move in here late Christmas Day…

Make it a great evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:41 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Here’s hoping this update finds each of you doing well with only a week remaining until Christmas. Where has the time gone? Anyway, we continue to track a massive storm system set to bring wind, rain and bit of snow our way later this week.

Let’s review my thoughts:

  • Our timeline continues to be Thursday through Saturday Morning
  • Heavy rain moves in Thursday and continues through Friday
  • The heaviest rains will be across the eastern half of the state with a general 1″-3″ a good bet. That may be enough to cause flooding issues to develop in some spots
  • Rain totals will be much lighter in the west
  • Gusty winds are a safe bet during this time and could reach 35mph to 40mph on occasion.
  • As the low goes by to our northeast on Friday, we will watch for a quick transition to a mix of rain and snow or just snow. The best chance is across the eastern part of the bluegrass state where some light accumulations can’t be ruled out.

The NAM goes through early evening and shows some wraparound snows developing…

The GFS also shows this…

The Canadian Model has a similar look…

We are one big high pressure short of this being a monster snowstorm. As is, it’s a lot of rain and wind with some wrapround snows possible.

Two lighter systems are coming in behind this for Sunday and Christmas Day. Those could bring some festive flakes into the region on Sunday, with some rain and snow for Christmas. Here’s the Canadian…

The ICON has a similar look…

Once again, there is zero shortage of action!

I will have another update this evening. Enjoy the day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:05 am

Tracking The Late Week Storm

Good Tuesday, everybody. It’s one week until Christmas and we are tracking another monster storm system moving to kick off the busy Christmas travel period. This is a huge storm that brings heavy rain, gusty winds and the possibility of wraparound snows to the bluegrass state.

In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts on this have not change very much. But, let’s freshen ’em up a little bit:

  • Our timeline continues to be Thursday through Saturday Morning
  • Heavy rain moves in Thursday and continues through Friday
  • The heaviest rains will be across the eastern half of the state with a general 1″-3″ a good bet. That would be enough to cause some flooding issues to develop in some spots.
  • Rain totals will be much lighter in the west.
  • Gusty winds are a safe bet during this time and could reach 35mph to 40mph on occasion.
  • As the low goes by to our northeast on Friday, the chance for wraparound snows is looking a little better. Some light accumulations are possible as of now across areas of central and eastern Kentucky. POSSIBLE being the key word.

This system is just getting to within the range of the NAM. This run goes through early Friday morning and you can see the wraparound snows…

The European Model continues to see the cold air just a little better, leading to some wraparound flakes…

That isn’t too different from what the new version of the GFS is seeing…

The GFS is showing the quick switch to some wet snow on the back edge of the departing rain shield…

The Canadian Model is currently most aggressive with the cold behind the low and has the best snow chance of all the models…

The Icon is also seeing some wraparound snows…

As you can see, every model is forecasting some wraparound snows to impact parts of our region. They seem to be seeing more cold air as we get closer to this storm system. Does that mean we can squeeze out some accumulations or just get a few festive flakes? That remains to be seen, but the trend is colder at the moment.

The models are still trying to figure out the weak system moving in behind that later Sunday into Christmas Eve Day. The Canadian Model has the most precipitation right now…

I will have your regular updates later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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