Daily Archives: December 19, 2018

Time posted: 7:33 pm

A Few Evening Thoughts

Good evening, folks. We continue to track a late week storm system that’s starts to impact our weather later tonight. This continues to be on pace to deliver heavy rain, gusty winds and a period of wet snow to our region. After that, a couple of lighter systems are working our way over the rest of the Christmas holiday weekend.

My thoughts from earlier remain:

  • Rounds of heavy rain impact central and eastern Kentucky Thursday into Friday. A general 1″-3″ may fall.
  • Local high water issues are very possible, especially in the southeastern parts of the state.
  • Gusty winds may reach 35mph at times.
  • Temps drop quickly as the low goes by to our northeast. That allows for a switch to a mix of rain and snow and a period of wet snow.
  • Some light accumulations are possible across central and eastern parts of the state. That’s still not a given because any snow that falls has to fight a wet ground. But, some slushy, light accumulations are POSSIBLE in some areas.

 

Let’s get a check of the latest models on how they’re handling the wraparound snow potential…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

GFS

The Sunday into Sunday night system continues to look fairly weak, but could deliver a little bit of light rain and light snow for some. The models are still trying to figure this out. Here’s the GFS…

The new version of the GFS has a little better signature with it…

The European is a little weaker…

The European Model is just a tad farther north with the Christmas Eve and Day system…

It starts things out with a bit of a wintry mess then goes over to rain. We shall see.

Another big change will follow that up with yet another potent storm later next week. That appears to be part of a pattern change to much colder as we get ready to flip to 2019. There’s a lot of winter in store for us in January and February, with the potential for things to turn awfully harsh. This was covered in the winter forecast and, so far, things are going as planned.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:24 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the late week storm system that’s on track to impact every state east of the Mississippi River. This storm throws heavy rain, wind and some wet snow our way.

A quick review of my thoughts:

  • Rounds of heavy rain impact central and eastern Kentucky Thursday into Friday. A general 1″-3″ may fall.
  • Local high water issues are very possible, especially in the southeastern parts of the state.
  • Gusty winds may reach 35mph at times.
  • Temps drop quickly as the low goes by to our northeast. That allows for a switch to a mix of rain and snow and a period of wet snow.
  • Some light accumulations are possible across central and eastern parts of the state. That’s still not a given because any snow that falls has to fight a wet ground. But, some slushy, light accumulations are POSSIBLE in some areas.

Let’s begin with the heavy rain and local high water threat. I like the NAM rainfall forecast…

As the low goes by, the NAM continues to be the most aggressive model in bringing some backlash wet snows into our region…

That particular model run has it snowing long enough and hard enough for some slushy accumulations…

I guess that’s possible, but I can’t say that’s a likely scenario as of now.

The Hi Res NAM only goes through early Friday evening, but has a similar thought process…

The GFS says NOT SO FAST, NAM FAM. Notice the much lighter brand of snow on this model run…

We will have to wait and see how if we can get some slushy accumulations, but it’s pretty cool to have that chance just a few days before Christmas! Speaking of… In my next update, I will touch on the lighter systems that may impact us on or just before the big day.

I’ll see you guys on WKYT-TV at 4pm then with another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Rain, Wind and Some Snow Ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have one more dry day before we get into our big storm system rolls into the bluegrass state. This is a massive system that will impact just about every state east of the Mississippi River to kick off that long Christmas holiday travel period. For us, it’s going to bring heavy rain, gusty winds and some wet snows.

This is the first of three systems we are tracking between now and Christmas. The other two are smaller, but have a chance to bring a little more winter weather in here.

Rain arrives from southwest to northeast later tonight and Thursday morning as our sprawling system comes together. Some fresh thoughts:

  • Heavy rain comes at us in waves for Thursday and Friday.
  • Local high water issues are possible across the eastern half of the state. That’s where a general 1″-3″ of rain may fall.
  • Rainfall numbers will be MUCH lighter across the west
  • Colder air crashes in behind our low as it moves northeast on Friday. That sets the stage for a switch to a mix of rain and snow and even a band of wet snow.
  • The best chance of snow is across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Light accumulations are possible, but the wet ground will have something to say about that. We shall see.
  • Temps Friday night drop into the 20s, so slick spots may develop on roads.

Let’s talk about the heavy rain threat right off the bat. Some hefty totals continue to target the eastern half of the state…

Local flooding issues may develop and that’s something we will be watching for.

As far as the wraparound snow potential… The models are all in pretty good agreement on this happening. The NAM is fairly aggressive with this band of wet snow and some follow up snow showers…

It’s trying to throw a little slushy accumulation across the region, especially in the east…

As mentioned, the wet ground will have something to say about that.

The GFS is similar with this scenario…

The Euro is also trying to put down a little slush…

The look for the rest of Christmas weekend into the big day is taking on a little more of an interesting look. The Euro has the chance for some light rain and light snow with a quick hitting system on Sunday…

That same run has a slightly stronger system showing up with snow and rain by Christmas morning…

The European has a friend in the Canadian Model…

All we can ask for is a chance for snow on or around Christmas and that’s certainly the case this year. Most would settle for some festive flakes, but some snow on the ground would work, too. 🙂

I will have your usual updates later today, so check back. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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