Daily Archives: December 20, 2018

Time posted: 7:35 pm

Tracking A Lot Of Rain and Some Snow

Good evening, folks. Heavy rain continues to put it down across much of the region and that trend continues through early Friday. Once there, we have the potential for a little bit of wet snow to take over. That’s how the long weekend begins and it may end with another light rain and light snow maker.

Let’s get after it…

  • Round of heavy rain will put down another 1″-2″ of rain across the eastern half of the state. Local high water issues are very possible, especially across the southeast. Watch those water levels!
  • Winds will increase and gusts may reach 30mph-35mph at times.
  • Cold air gets pulled in behind our departing storm on Friday. That means a mix of wet snow and rain then a switch to a period of wet snow for parts of central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Some light accumulations are possible, but the wet ground is gonna put up a fight to melt those falling flakes.
  • Watch for a few slick spots to develop Friday night and Saturday morning. All this rain and temps in the 20s will make for some icy spots.

The NAM continues to show the best wet snow potential from Friday afternoon into Friday night…

The Hi Res NAM is similar…

The short-range Canadian is also picking up on a little slush…

The GFS continues to be lightest of the bunch…

A lot of snow that falls will be melting, but the high ground in the southeast has a chance to overachieve. That’s certainly something to watch for.

The next system refuses to show up on the GFS or NAM, but every other model has it for Sunday and Sunday night. This is a quick-hitting band of light rain and light snow…

New version of the GFS…

ICON

European Model

The European Model continues to throw another system our way later on Christmas day…

That run does show a small streak of wet snow…

I’m not sold on that one just yet, but the consistency of the European is noted.

I leave you with your evening radar tracking toys…

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

2 Comments

Time posted: 12:22 pm

Local High Water Issues Possible

Good afternoon, folks. Rounds of rain continue to roll across the bluegrass state, bringing the potential for local high water issues. I’m a littler more concerned about this potential than earlier, especially in the southeast. As our storm slowly moves by later Friday, a switch to some wet snow is still in the cards for some.

After that, we focus on the next system later in the Christmas weekend.

As always, let’s start with the system upon us. My thoughts really haven’t budged all week long:

  • Round of heavy rain will put down 1″-3″ rains across the eastern half of the state. Local high water issues are very possible, especially across the southeast. Watch those water levels!
  • Winds will increase and gusts may reach 30mph-35mph at times.
  • Cold air gets pulled in behind our departing storm on Friday. That means a mix of wet snow and rain then a switch to a period of wet snow for parts of central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Some light accumulations are possible, but the wet ground is gonna put up a fight to melt those falling flakes.
  • Watch for a few slick spots to develop Friday night and Saturday morning. All this rain and temps in the 20s will make for some icy spots.

I mentioned the high water potential showing up a little better than before. Check out the additional rainfall amounts from the GFS…

That has some 2″-3″ amounts in the southeast.

The NAM also has some 2″ amounts…

With a soaked ground and no vegetation, it doesn’t take much to cause high water issues in the mountains!

As far as the switch to wet snow and a few snow showers late Friday into Friday night, the NAM Fam isn’t budging on light, slushy accumulations…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

The GFS is in more of a Grinch mood…

Those higher elevations in southeastern Kentucky have the best chance to pick up on accumulating snow. There’s an outside chance for a quick thumper in the high ground there.

The next system arriving Sunday into Sunday night should bring a period of light rain and light snow to the area…

There could be a similar system arriving later Christmas Day.

Another big storm system is likely to move through here a few days after Christmas on Thursday. It’s the period after that next weekend that has my attention. My winter storm spidey senses are telling me to watch that period into New Year’s. Those spidey senses are 2 for 2 on the young season.

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm and another update on KWC later this evening. Until then, here are your soggy Thursday trackers…

Make it a good one and take care.

14 Comments

Time posted: 1:57 am

Active Setup Leads Us Into Christmas

Good Thursday, folks. Rounds of heavy rain are targeting the region today and into Friday. This comes from a massive storm system impacting areas from Canada to Cuba and all points in between. We should be able to squeeze a little wet snow out of this late Friday.

Here’s a breakdown of how this may play out:

  • Rounds of heavy rain will be common through Friday and could cause a few high water issues. Rainfall amounts of 1″-3″ will be noted across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Winds will be very gusty and may reach 35mph at times.
  • Much colder air swings in on Friday, with a mix of rain and snow developing in the afternoon. A period of wet snow will be possible in the central and east Friday night and very early Saturday.
  • Some light, slushy accumulations will be possible, but a wet ground is going to have a say in that.

As we take a look at the various computer models, we begin with the heavy rain aspect. Don’t overlook the potential for local stream and street flooding issues with rainfall numbers like these…

Hi Res NAM

GFS

The snow part of this isn’t a big, big deal, but we can see the potential for a little slush. The NAM Fam continues to be the most aggressive…

Hi Res NAM

The NAM Fam is likely overdone, with the GFS probably closer to reality…

With or without any sticking snow, slick spots will develop on roads Friday night. All that water will combine with temps in the 20s to make for some icy travel for some.

The next system quickly rolls in here on Sunday into early Christmas Eve day. This may bring some light rain and light snow to much of the region. Here’s the new version of the GFS…

That matches up well with the European Model…

The system zipping in for Christmas Day is a little weaker on the European, but is still showing a little light rain and light snow for parts of Kentucky…

Updates as usual later today. Until then, let’s track some rain…

Make it a great day and take care.

17 Comments