Daily Archives: December 27, 2018

Time posted: 7:32 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. High winds and heavy rains continue to push across the bluegrass state, causing some issues along the way. Among those issues, wind damage and flooding. That flood threat across southeastern Kentucky continues to be elevated through tonight.

That’s a part of the state that can pick up a general 1″-3″ of rain tonight, with local 4″ amounts possible. If those numbers verify, flooding and flash flooding will develop.

Winds are already gusting in excess of 50mph and may approach 60mph in a few spots. Wind damage is a good bet in several spots.

Here are your evening tracking tools…

The news round of flooding rains shows up Sunday night into the final day of the year Monday. Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible, with the GFS showing a little more than that…

That major rain event also shows up on the European…

Flash flooding, general flooding and river flooding will all be possible during that time period.

Much colder air comes in behind as another low develops across the south. Most models have been showing this south and east of us, but I’ve said to watch for a trend back toward the west. That trend is underway. Here’s the new version of the GFS for Wednesday and Thursday…

The European Model is getting closer…

The European Control has a really potent storm on top of West Virginia with winter weather across much of Kentucky…

Let’s see if those models are onto something or just on something. 🙂

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

10 Comments

Time posted: 12:16 pm

Flood Threat Increases

Good afternoon, everyone. High winds are rolling across Kentucky and the potential for flooding continues to increase. I’ve been highlighting the high water threat for several days and that is looking a little better as we get closer, especially in the southeast.

We will get a line of showers and thunderstorms to move across the state late today through tonight. That line may slow down across southeastern Kentucky, leading to the potential for some major rains. The models are really latching on to this possibility.

The GFS is showing widespread 2″-4″ rains with local 5″ amounts…

The NAM is a little more expansive with similar numbers…

The Hi Res NAM is also showing some pretty hefty totals…

If the above numbers are realized, significant flooding problems will develop across southeastern Kentucky and parts of south central and eastern sections of the state.

A Flash Flood Watch is already out for parts of the southeast but may need to be expanded…

I have no changes to the winds with gusts that may top 50mph at times through tonight.

The flood potential returns late this weekend into the final day of 2018 as another big storm system rolls right on top of us. This could drop another 1″-3″ of rain across much of Kentucky, leading to flash flooding and possible river flooding. That will be followed by colder air and a potential third system by Wednesday and Thursday. That is starting to trend west on the models. Here are both systems…

Canadian

GFS

I have you all set to track today’s active weather across the country. Let’s start with the exclusive interactive radar. This allows you to go to street level in any part of the country and includes real time weather information, watches and warnings, storm tracks and live feeds from storm chasers. You can watch the live streams from the snowstorm in the plains or the severe weather in the south… Or both…

Current watches
Current Watches<img src=”http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png” alt=”Current Watches” width=”582″ height=”408″ />

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

I have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will throw you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

10 Comments

Time posted: 2:20 am

Heavy Rain and High Winds Today

Good Thursday, folks. It’s a busy day of weather across the Commonwealth as another massive storm system impacts the region. High winds, heavy rain and a few thunderstorms show up later today through early Friday morning.

Watch how the NAM brings a December version of a squall line across the state…

Here’s a breakdown of how things look to play out:

  • High winds are the main threat through early Friday. Gusts may reach 50mph or greater in a few spots.
  • Some wind damage is possible, especially with uprooted trees because of such a wet ground.
  • Showers and a few storms increase from west to east this afternoon through the evening. I can’t rule out a strong storm or two.
  • Heavy rains show up for some areas, with the potential for local high water issues. The greatest threat is across the southeast.
  • Rains end from west to east on Friday as cold air surges back in during the evening.

Let’s look ahead to the closing days of 2018 because we have even more action on the way. A weak system throws some light rain or a mix at us Saturday night and Sunday, with a much bigger system quickly moving in for New Year’s Eve.

That system keeps trending stronger and stronger and that’s bad news for our region. I said a few days ago we had better hope this system gives us some winter weather because we don’t need it to bundle into a big storm that brings more heavy rain. In true 2018 fashion, this system is poised to send the wettest year on record out with a bang with a potential flood event.

Cold air will then crash in behind that system with a third storm likely to make a comeback to the west on the models by Wednesday or Thursday.

Canadian

GFS 

That’s a lot of cold air pouring in as that Wednesday system likely shows up farther west as we get closer.

Let’s get back to the New Year’s Eve flood threat. You can see both models above showing a lot of rain in our region and that’s backed up by the European Model…

It is very possible for some parts of the state to pick up more than 4″ of rain between now and the time the ball drops for 2019.

The parallels to late December 1977/early January 1978 and December 1978/early January 1979 are pretty striking.

I have you all set to track this massive storm across the country and here in the bluegrass state. I’ll start with the exclusive interactive radar. This allows you to go to street level in any part of the country and includes real time weather information, watches and warnings, storm tracks and live feeds from storm chasers. You can watch the live streams from the snowstorm in the plains or the severe weather in the south… Or both…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

I will drop by for updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

21 Comments